Iberdrola wants Spain's high-voltage wires back, and data centers are its argument

At the Foro La Toja on October 2, 2026, Iberdrola España chief Mario Ruiz-Tagle said "demonizing" data centers "makes no sense"↗: they will be built nearby anyway, "consuming probably Spanish energy", and what will fall on Spain is "investment, employment and growth" ¹². His ask of the next government: "let us do it" ³. Goldman Sachs put a €25 target on that ask on October 1; nine-month results on October 21 will test it ⁹⁸. Telefónica chief Emilio Gayo, on the same panel, called the current grid "sufficient" and named regulation, not power supply, as the obstacle ¹².

The monopoly Iberdrola lost in 2007

The speech has a target: Red Eléctrica. Ruiz-Tagle first proposed opening Spain's high-voltage grid to 30-year private concessions in June 2024; after the April 28, 2025, blackout, chairman Ignacio Sánchez Galán tied the monopoly both to the outage and to Iberdrola's investment cuts in Spain ³. Iberdrola was made to sell its 220 kV lines to Red Eléctrica when Spain concentrated transmission in 2007 ³. PNV and PP deputies have now put the split of its twin role, grid owner and system operator, to the energy secretary inside Congress's blackout inquiry↗ ³.

The connection queue has flipped to demand

Madrid answers with money, not surgery. On September 16, 2026, the government lifted the 2025-30 transmission plan above €17 billion↗, from a €13.6 billion draft and €8.2 billion in force, and raised the spending cap for network companies, transmission and distribution alike, by 62%: about €3.6 billion more headroom for Red Eléctrica itself ⁴⁵. Galicia, where Ruiz-Tagle spoke, is due 10 new substations and 1,600 MW of capacity for large industrial demand ⁶.

The queue explains the rush. New demand, data centers included, is now 41% of connection requests, ahead of generation at 40% ⁴. A Fundación Renovables report counts 94% of distribution connection points saturated while utilization runs under 16%, "a jam that is not physical but of management" ³.

An upgrade built on wires

The build is the earnings story. First-half 2026 net profit was €4,336.4 million, up 21.7%↗, on a network asset base that grew 11.2% to €54,330 million; €7 billion went into the ground, 63% of it networks ⁷⁸.

Goldman moved to Buy on October 1 at €25, on about 10% annual earnings growth to 2031 and roughly €100 billion of capex, some 70% of it regulated networks, mostly American and British; it expects free cash flow negative through 2031 and net debt near four times EBITDA ⁹. Deutsche Bank followed on September 29 at €22 ⁹. The returns that carry both targets are earned mostly on other countries' wires. The Spanish grid is the argument.

The golden goose answers back

The other side says the goose is fine. Fundación Renovables' Ismael Morales calls transmission "the goose that lays the golden eggs", paid by decree at lower risk than liberalized markets, and warns a breakup would cost transparency ³. Bankinter reiterated Buy on Redeia at €16.5, citing a regulated asset base growing about 7% a year and an allowed return lifted to 6.58% ⁵. The power lobby Aelec calls the split an old debate for legislators ³.

October 21 is the tell

Nine-month results land on October 21, 2026 ⁸. The tell is in Madrid, not Bilbao: the government met the connection crush by raising the network companies' caps, reinforcing Redeia rather than splitting it ⁴. If the queue keeps swelling, the 30-year concession idea comes back with numbers attached. Whoever wires Spain's data centers keeps the golden eggs.