Instacart says its $17 billion DoorDash merger cannot close before late 2027; Amazon moved Prime to Uber Eats
Instacart casts the tie-up as a shield for grocers against Walmart and Amazon, with regulators as the audience. For DoorDash holders the timeline is the exposure: the shield sits more than a year away, while Amazon has already moved Prime's front door to Uber Eats.
Richard Tangfour-minute read
Instacart, the grocery-delivery marketplace, pressed its public case on Monday for its $17 billion combination with DoorDash, the largest US delivery app 3. The number its chief commercial officer, Ryan Hamburger, offered shareholders is a date: the deal is not expected to be finalized until late 2027 at the earliest 1.
His argument, that grocers are being squeezed by Walmart−0.39% — Walmart, down 0.39 percent today and Amazon+1.74% — Amazon, up 1.74 percent today rather than by delivery marketplaces, is addressed to the regulators who must clear the transaction, and the supermarket chains Coborn's and The Save Mart Companies have endorsed it 1. The market has already voted on the timing: on November 5 Amazon made Uber Eats the restaurant partner for Prime, and DoorDash shares sank 13%, their worst day in a year 32.
An agent can order dinner; it cannot deliver it
The fear under that sell-off predates Amazon's move: AI agents place orders themselves, and DoorDash−1.22% — DoorDash, down 1.22 percent as of its last quote never sees the customer 3. SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin called agents an existential risk to the company 3. The count so far is several hundred agent-placed orders 3. DoorDash handled 993 million orders last quarter 5. Chief executive Tony Xu's own advice was to never fight gravity and never be delusional 4.
The mechanism matters more than the mood. An agent compares apps and picks one, then must hand the order to a physical delivery network, and more than 35 million members already pay DoorDash for free delivery across DashPass, Wolt+ and Deliveroo Plus, so a price-shopping agent still tends to land where the membership is 3. Amazon's Prime bet runs the same logic from the other end: the membership gets the order 3.
An order can arrive through Amazon's app or an agent's chat window. DoorDash can still be the network that delivers the food and collects the fee.
DoorDash took 59% of delivery-app spending last quarter
An agent can pick any app to order from; the network underneath is mostly DoorDash's
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| DoorDash | 59% |
| Uber Eats | 18% |
| Instacart | 18% |
The link agents actually threaten is the ad slot
A customer who orders inside an agent, or inside Amazon's app, never sees a DoorDash ad slot, and management credited advertising for part of its second-quarter beat 3. That is the real AI exposure, and it is slow.
DoorDash is building into it: a chatbot, a text-to-order agent, and a protocol that lets outside agents order directly 4. Its stated strategy is to win what it calls the battle for atoms, the physical network, while others fight to be the digital assistant 5. The same day Amazon struck, ride-hailing company Lyft+1.43% — Lyft, up 1.43 percent today launched a monthly membership that includes DashPass, DoorDash's free-delivery subscription 6.
The multiple already discounts part of the front-door fight
The numbers frame the decision. DoorDash trades at about 28 times forward earnings, against a three-year average of 39 3. Analysts still expect revenue to climb from $13.7 billion in 2025 to $25.7 billion in 2028 3. The rival now pressing the front door is profitable: Uber's−1.59% — Uber, down 1.59 percent as of its last quote delivery arm grew operating income 30% to $1.06 billion last quarter 3.
Revenue has grown in every quarter since 2023 and rose 34% year over year last quarter
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '23 | $2.3B |
| Q1 '24 | $2.51B |
| Q2 '24 | $2.63B |
| Q3 '24 | $2.71B |
| Q4 '24 | $2.87B |
| Q1 '25 | $3.03B |
| Q2 '25 | $3.28B |
| Q3 '25 | $3.45B |
| Q4 '25 | $3.96B |
| Q1 '26 | $4.04B |
| Q2 '26 | $4.45B |
| Q3 '26 | $4.62B |
Holding through a wait that runs to late 2027 or beyond means believing the network holds that path while its biggest ordering front door sits inside Amazon's app; the multiple says part of that fight is already priced in.
The merger itself is scale for that network: DoorDash targets at least $500 million in annual synergies and expects to reinvest more than all of them in the first year after close 5.
The markers to watch while the calendar runs
The wait has milestones anyone can track. Regulatory: the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust act in the United States, and clearance in Canada and Israel 5. Business: advertising revenue in the fourth-quarter results, the piece agents quietly bypass, and the count of agent-placed orders, which DoorDash gave on its October call 34.
Agents will take more of the ordering conversation every year, and the network that carries the food still gets paid either way. What can break the case before 2028 is regulatory: if the deal is blocked, the shield Instacart is selling grocers never arrives, and DoorDash meets Amazon and Uber without it.
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