IonQ reports SkyWater for the first time on November 5; D-Wave is the only outside customer with a deal
The Minnesota fab IonQ bought on July 31 made money largely from IonQ itself; the first consolidated revenue guide, due November 5, shows what an outside customer actually pays, and the only one with a disclosed deal is D-Wave, down 55% this year and facing a class action.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
On November 5, IonQ−0.67% — IonQ, down 0.67 percent today reports its first quarter with SkyWater Technology inside the company, and for the first time it must guide revenue for the two businesses as one 1. The Minnesota chip foundry IonQ bought on July 31, 2026, had its own tape; it is now a division of a quantum stock down 43.6% over a year 2.
That stock priced a $2.0 billion share sale at $40 a share and closed at $32.28 on October 21 3. Trefis counts a median worst yearly fall of 52.2% for it and calls a 50% crash realistic 2.
Every pure-play quantum stock is down sharply over one year
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Rigetti (RGTI) | 71% |
| D-Wave (QBTS) | 62% |
| IonQ (IONQ) | 47% |
The guide is smaller than the sum of its parts
Here is the arithmetic nobody has put on the tape. IonQ's fiscal 2026 revenue guide of $280 million to $290 million covers IonQ alone 2. Management said IonQ expected to spend about $120 million with SkyWater this fiscal year, money that counted as SkyWater revenue until now; once the two are one company, intercompany revenue is eliminated 2.
So the combined number due November 5 is less than IonQ plus SkyWater, and the difference is IonQ spending on itself 3. What the guide exposes instead is SkyWater's third-party revenue: what an outside customer actually pays. Analysts expect about $141 million for the third quarter, and a beat with color on the quantum foundry would support the $450 million to $460 million full-year guidance 3.
One named outside customer, and it is a wounded rival
SkyWater CEO Thomas Sonderman said at IonQ's September 8 investor day that the fab runs thousands of quantum wafers a year, a third tied to IonQ, with nine quantum customers 3. The one outside customer with a disclosed deal is D-Wave Quantum+0.13% — D-Wave Quantum, up 0.13 percent today, which extended its SkyWater manufacturing agreement on October 13 with no terms disclosed 4.
The FTC Chairman's July 31 statement on the merger, reviewed by PhotonCap, noted quantum developers could face months of delay if forced to switch foundries 6. That is the strategic asset. The cash register is a different question. D-Wave is down 55% in 2026, faces a securities class action filed October 15 alleging its bookings surge rests on two older contracts, allegations the company disputes and a court has not tested 47.
D-Wave needs roughly $32 million in fourth-quarter revenue to reach the $42.5 million analysts expect for 2026, more than five times its whole first half 4.
The other camp, fairly stated
IonQ's defenders have receipts too: second-quarter revenue of $80.1 million, nearly triple Rigetti's+0.13% — Rigetti, up 0.13 percent today, exceeded every other pure-play quantum company combined, against $3 billion of cash and investments 8. IonQ says co-developing with SkyWater cut its design cycle from nine months to two 6. D-Wave, for its part, holds $546 million of cash and up to $100 million of CHIPS Act funding, so this is dilution risk, not imminent distress 47.
What November 5 decides
Watch two lines: the combined revenue guide, reset for SkyWater with intercompany sales stripped out, and whether IonQ splits foundry revenue into its CMOS and quantum buckets as promised 3. Nine days out, the fab's economics stop being a story and become a number.
Deep dive in the sources below to learn more.
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