IREN's 3-year-old Nvidia H100s re-rented at double the price; $6 billion of its $15 billion build unfunded
The doubled rent on three-year-old H100s is IREN's proof that GPU collateral holds value. It lands in front of lenders just as $6 billion of the company's $15 billion build still needs raising, and the form of that money decides who carries the risk.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
Three-year-old chips, doubled rents
Chips do not usually appreciate. On IREN's+1.22% — IREN, up 1.22 percent today Nov. 5 earnings call, co-CEO Daniel Roberts said these just did: "Older generation H100s, we just recontracted at double the original contract price." 1 IREN, a former bitcoin miner now renting out AI data centers, wrote its $9.7 billion Microsoft−2.43% — Microsoft, down 2.43 percent today contract as if the GPUs inside were worth nothing after five years. 12
The rest of the call ran the same direction: a five-year deal at about $22 million per megawatt with the customer prepaying about 90% of the GPU bill, a short-term deal above $40 million per megawatt, and contracted pricing up 11% to 12%. 2
A $6 billion hole in a $15 billion plan
The September quarter alone consumed $4.77 billion of capital spending, against $281 million a year earlier. 3 IREN still plans $15 billion this fiscal year, to June 2027; about $9 billion is covered by cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments, and $6 billion is "target" financing, subject to market conditions. 24 Short seller Jim Chanos counts about $20 billion of average capital employed by the time IREN reaches $4 billion of revenue and calls the resulting 5x ratio "not viable long-term." 1 The doubled H100 rent is IREN's answer: collateral that earns more at three years than it did new 1.
IREN's quarterly capex rose 17-fold in the year to September 2026
The September quarter alone spent 17x the year-ago quarter
Data
| Quarterly capex | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $0.18B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.44B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.36B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.28B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.73B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.33B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.98B |
| Q3 '26 | $4.77B |
The banks priced the hole, not the chips
Goldman Sachs+1.63% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.63 percent today cut its target to $30 from $50 and kept Neutral; JPMorgan went to $55 from $65, Cantor Fitzgerald to $47 from $99. 56 Net debt reached $4.43 billion, from $216 million, and the stock fell 45% in a month. 5 The other side of the ledger: June's $3.65 billion GPU financing, rated A, covered about 96% of the $5.8 billion Microsoft GPU bill at a 3.31% average cost, and backlog stands at $20.3 billion, two-thirds with investment-grade counterparties. 2 Roberts, on the same call: "Capital markets have become more selective in the last few weeks." 4
Three banks cut their IREN targets by 40 to 52 points
- Target before
- Target after
Data
| Target before | Target after | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $50 | $30 | -40.0% |
| JPMorgan | $65 | $55 | -15.4% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $99 | $47 | -52.5% |
The form of the money decides it
If lenders accept the doubled mark, the $6 billion arrives as debt against GPUs and data centers IREN values at $6 billion. 2 If not, it arrives as stock, and shareholders have seen that bill: shares outstanding rose 48% in fiscal 2026. 1
Timing has already slipped once. Microsoft asked IREN to reconfigure network gear to ready 200 megawatts for frontier models, pushing the $4 billion annualized revenue milestone to January, possibly February 4, and Microsoft itself spent $5 billion less than expected on AI infrastructure after delays at third-party providers. 7 Research firm Currence expects 30% to 50% of capacity due this year to slip into 2027 or later. 8
The January print and the terms on the first slice of the $6 billion settle the argument. Debt priced like June's deal says Chanos is wrong; new shares say he is early.
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