Keefe Bruyette downgrades Riot Platforms on Anthropic tenant risk, $23 target vs Jefferies' $28
A day after Jefferies more than doubled its target to $28 on the Corsicana lease, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut Riot to Market Perform at $23 over tenant credit. The 10-Q names the tenant Anthropic PBC, and Anthropic prices its IPO on November 18.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
Two Wall Street houses read the same 910 megawatts in Corsicana, Texas and wrote opposite calls a day apart 1. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut Riot Platforms−1.44% — Riot Platforms, down 1.44 percent today to Market Perform on November 11, 2026, citing "substantial" reliance on Anthropic as a tenant and no investment-grade credit support behind the lease, while lifting its price target to $23 from $20. 1
A day earlier, Jefferies−0.50% — Jefferies, down 0.50 percent today had upgraded the stock to Buy, more than doubling its target to $28 from $13 and calling the Corsicana lease "a reset for the market." 2 Both calls price one asset: 15 years, about $28 billion of contracted rent, $1.8 billion a year on average regardless of use, up to $54 billion with both extensions. 3 Riot's quarterly filing names the tenant its press release would not: Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B PBC. 4
A landlord with $202 million of bitcoin left
Riot built Corsicana to mine bitcoin, and 2026 is the year it sold the coin to become a landlord 4. The 10-Q shows 20,264 bitcoin sold for about $1.5 billion in nine months, primarily to fund data center development, leaving 2,418 coins worth $202.0 million at September 30, with substantially all future production earmarked for sale too. 4 Riot's own share of the build is $2 million per MW, about $1.8 billion, against $669 million of cash. 34
Riot sold more bitcoin in Q3 alone than in the entire first half
What is left of the treasury: 2,418 coins, $202.0 million
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Sold Jan-Jun 2026 | 9,665 BTC |
| Sold Jul-Sep 2026 | 10,599 BTC |
| Held 30 Sep 2026 | 2,418 BTC |
One lease, two verdicts
Keefe Bruyette's case is the counterparty: Riot's value now rides on Anthropic's performance and finances, with the investment case shifting to financing and construction, where visibility is limited. 1 The 10-Q sizes it 4. If non-recourse project debt cannot be raised on acceptable terms, Riot repays Anthropic up to $4 million per MW, about $3.6 billion across the campus, through rent credits amortizing at 12% a year. 4 Jefferies analyst Jonathan Petersen counters with structure: average lease yields of 33%, capital costs near $6 million per MW against $11 million to $15 million for a standard build. 6
Riot price targets span $23 to $41 a week after the lease
Keefe Bruyette's $23 sits $18 below Morgan Stanley on the same lease
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $41 |
| Chardan | $32 |
| Bernstein | $30 |
| Jefferies | $28 |
| JPMorgan | $28 |
| Keefe Bruyette | $23 |
The date that decides it
Twenty-one of 22 analysts still rate Riot a Buy, consensus target $31.56 against a November 10 close of $18.08, even as insiders sold $8.4 million of stock in three months. 27811 Anthropic, counterparty on 1,101 of the 1,151 MW Riot has contracted, prices its IPO on November 18 at $70 to $78 a share, listing on Nasdaq as ANT, with about $81 billion of run-rate revenue behind it. 910
The Rockdale project's $573 million credit facility matures on December 31, as The Inference reported on October 23. 4 Two readings settle the $23-versus-$28 argument: whether Corsicana's project debt prices below 12%, and the first block, due June 2027. 4 Riot traded 20,264 bitcoin for a 15-year claim on a company that has not yet sold a single public share 4.
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