Lumentum is sold out to 2029 while Coherent's insiders sold $1.1 billion of Nvidia's other optics bet
Lumentum's CEO says optical components are booked into early 2029, and optics stocks jumped overnight. Coherent, holder of Nvidia's other $2 billion optics stake, just took a 9.6% fall and a 3.5% premarket bounce while its insiders sold $1.1 billion of stock.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The chief executive of Lumentum+6.44% — The chief executive of Lumentum, up 6.44 percent today spent Friday in Tokyo describing an unusual problem: too many orders. "We are completely sold out, so there's no end in sight," Michael Hurlston said, with the pipeline booked into early 2029 12. Lumentum can satisfy only about 30% of demand for some products into next year, shortfalls on other lines run through 2028, new capacity takes three to five years to build, and hyperscalers are co-funding the expansion 2. Optics stocks jumped overnight: AAOI gained 3%, Lumentum and Coherent+2.95% — Coherent, up 2.95 percent today about 1.4% each 1.
The doubt sits on Coherent, not the shortage
This should help Coherent most. Nvidia−0.38% — Nvidia, down 0.38 percent today put $2 billion into Coherent in March and the same sum into Lumentum 15. Over the following 12 months, Coherent's insiders took out $1.1 billion without buying a single share, and 12 of 13 gurus tracked by GuruFocus trimmed 4. A day before Hurlston spoke, Coherent fell 9.63% to $302.35, nearly twice Lumentum's drop, then premarked up 3.46%: a 13-point round trip inside two sessions 31. Coherent's retail crowd is the group's only bearish read 1.
Coherent has captured a third of its optics peers' 2026 rally
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Applied Optoelectronics | 204% |
| Lumentum | 185% |
| Coherent | 64% |
The receipts point both ways
Coherent's filings argue the bull side. Revenue has risen every quarter for three years, and the June quarter jumped 34% to $2.05 billion 68. Datacenter and communications revenue grew from $1.02 billion to $1.62 billion in a year, and September-quarter guidance of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion sat above the $2.14 billion consensus 5. The industrial business shrank 16%, and the stock fell 4% on the report anyway 5.
Revenue has risen every quarter for three years, and the pace just jumped
Data
| Quarterly revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $1.05B |
| Q4 '23 | $1.13B |
| Q1 '24 | $1.21B |
| Q2 '24 | $1.31B |
| Q3 '24 | $1.35B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.44B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.5B |
| Q2 '25 | $1.53B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.58B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.69B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.81B |
| Q2 '26 | $2.05B |
The redirect runs into the same shortage
Morgan Stanley's October 5 estimate of a net 32-gigawatt US power shortfall through 2028 names optics among the components most exposed if projects slip 7. The Senate bill barring Eoptolink and Zhongji Innolight from sensitive federal systems would push demand toward the Americans 9. But the Foundation for American Innovation says the two US makers lack the scale to replace Chinese supply, and Counterpoint Research says they cannot fill the Innolight gap 92. The shortage that bulls cite is also the ceiling on the windfall.
What settles it
Coherent's own words, not Lumentum's. Watch where the September quarter lands inside that $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion range, whether the PhotonLink platform ramps on schedule in the December quarter 8, and whether chief executive Jim Anderson ever says what Hurlston just said. Until then, sold out to 2029 is a rival's quote.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
