Michael Burry says Fiserv is worth $100 to $120 a share; the stock rose 13% to $58.83

A $100 call on a stock trading near $50

Michael Burry, whose bet against the 2000s housing bubble was chronicled in The Big Short, used a November 2 Substack post↗ to value Fiserv▼−1.94% — Fiserv, down 1.94 percent today, the processor behind about a third of U.S. merchant payment volume, at $100 to $120 a share in a buyout ¹³. The stock traded near $50 when he wrote it, down 76.2% over two years ¹³.

His yardstick is the reported early-stage bid by the buyout firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice and GTCR, Global Payments'·−0.59% — Global Payments, down 0.59 percent as of its last quote largest shareholder, for that rival ³. Fiserv "is still Castle," his label for top holdings, and PayPal·−1.07% — PayPal, down 1.07 percent as of its last quote remains a "fat pitch" in the $50s ³, a view BofA does not share↗.

A beat, an impairment, and a 13% pop

On November 3, Fiserv reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.75↗, four cents above consensus, on flat organic revenue: Merchant Solutions fell 2%, Financial Solutions grew 2% ⁴⁸. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, doubled its Project Elevate savings target to $1 billion and promised $500 million of buybacks this quarter ⁴.

The savings come from embedding AI across workflows, and an agentic-AI product for banks counts 200 institutions in its pipeline ⁷. A $6.45 billion goodwill impairment, triggered by the share-price collapse, still drove a GAAP loss of $11.17 a share ⁴. The stock rose 13% to $58.83 ⁵.

A shrinking cash engine under the pop

The pop lands on a business that has stopped growing. Free cash flow fell to $2.04 billion in the first nine months from $2.88 billion, and adjusted operating margin slipped to 31.2% from 37.0% ⁴.

The ladder stops at $72. Burry starts at $100

This week's upgrades climbed the ladder's middle: Argus to Buy at $72, RBC to $70, TD Cowen to $59 ². BofA▲+0.14% — BofA, up 0.14 percent today holds Underperform at $48, the consensus average sits at $57.55, and analysts cut 2026 EPS estimates 27 times in 90 days without one raise↗ ¹.

At Burry's range the equity alone is worth $53 billion to $64 billion, 14 to 17 times 2026 consensus EPS of $7.24, before the $25.8 billion of long-term debt an acquirer inherits, itself down from $27.8 billion at end-2025 ¹⁴. His own benchmark cuts both ways: he values Global Payments' control at $45 to $60, below its $96.84 price, and notes financial buyers pay less than strategics ³.

Three tests between $58.83 and Burry's $100

Three dated tests: whether the Global Payments bid becomes a signed price, turning the measuring stick into a market multiple; fourth-quarter results, where CFO Paul Todd expects revenue acceleration and Clover's return to double-digit growth ⁴⁷; and banking attrition, already down more than 25% this year ⁴. Keefe Bruyette called it a better-than-expected quarter against tempered hopes↗, with sustainability the open question ⁷. The cash is real; the bidder is still a rumor.