Nebius has 5 GW of power signed and about 200 MW billing: the ladder that sets its ARR guide
Nebius's capacity is counted in gigawatts while its revenue arrives in megawatts. Working the ladder from contracted to connected to billing power shows what the December guide really assumes, what a customer prepayment is, and why the debt market already ranks the neoclouds.
Richard Tang · 9 min read
Five gigawatts signed, about 200 megawatts billing
Nebius+7.68% — Nebius, up 7.68 percent today raised its year-end target for contracted power to 5 gigawatts in August, and October took a third off the stock anyway: $154.14 at the October 30 close from $235.88 at the end of September, and near $118 in the November 5 session 122. The question is what a signed gigawatt is worth in December revenue, and the answer is less than the headline suggests.
The third rung of the ladder is the only one that pays
Nebius separates three rungs: contracted power, secured by land and power contracts; connected power, running into built and equipped buildings; and active power, consumed by installed equipment and available to earn 4. It guides to 5,000 megawatts on the first rung at year-end, 800 to 1,000 on the second, and publishes no number for the third 14.
That rung can be worked out. Run-rate revenue was $3.0 billion in June 1. At the $20 million per megawatt the landmark second-quarter deals yield, that is 150 megawatts billing; at $15 million, 200; at $12 million on older deals, 250 1. A twentieth to a thirtieth of the contracted headline was earning money in June. Bank of America+0.38% — Bank of America, up 0.38 percent as of its last quote puts about 525 megawatts active at the end of the third quarter, against 170 at the start of the year 16.
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- 01The December guide is a ramp, not a sandbag
- 02A megawatt pays for itself in two to three years
- 03The one-year-ten-month payback counts the customer's money
- 04Three-year-old chips still rent for more than a year ago
- 05Microsoft and Meta are the lenders
- 06The coupon on that loan is the discount
- 07Seven percent against fifteen
- 08But Nebius's cheap loan is one-year money
- 09Scale buys cheap debt, not a captive customer
- 10The side businesses are about $6 a share, not $42
- 11A political pause that bites Nebius less than its rivals
- 12At $142 the shares price in a survivor
- 13No moat, extreme uncertainty, adequate allocation
- 14What would prove it wrong
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