NRC finishes X-energy's safety review; the stock still sits 72% below its high
The regulator's staff closed the Xe-100 reactor's safety file on October 30, and its independent safety advisers back a construction permit. XE still trades near its 12-month low, and AEP, host of the 12-reactor Indiana project, puts any final investment decision no earlier than 2030.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
On October 30 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's staff closed its safety review of the Xe-100 reactor, the plant X-energy$1B — X-energy, private, latest valuation $1B (Nasdaq: XE) and the chemicals group Dow propose at Long Mott in Seadrift, Texas, which would be the first grid-scale advanced reactor at a US industrial site 1. The stock has not followed the regulator: XE opened November 3 at $10.37, a whisker above its 12-month low of $10.04 and 72 percent below its $37.10 high, with the construction permit the next binary 3.
The last technical gate before building
The application, filed in March 2025 by Long Mott Energy, a wholly owned Dow subsidiary, covers four 80-megawatt reactors, 320 megawatts in all, feeding electricity and process steam to Dow's Seadrift works 2. The Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, an independent body that advises the commission, supports issuing the permit, and the environmental review closed in May, completing both primary reviews 1. The regulator says to expect "a construction permit announcement soon" 2.
Analyst targets sit far above the share price
Wedbush started coverage on November 3 at Outperform with a $17 target, about 64 percent above the prior close; the consensus of 14 analysts sits at $29.67, from one Strong Buy, seven Buys, four Holds and two Sells; UBS halved its own target to $18 from $34 on October 21 3.
The caution has a basis in the numbers: last quarter X-energy lost 15 cents a share where analysts expected nine, on $54.6 million of revenue, up 154 percent 3. A reactor developer books little until plants are built, so the cash on hand has to bridge the years between a permit and poured concrete. Third-quarter results land before the open on November 12 4.
Every published price target on XE sits above the stock, from $17 to $57
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Guggenheim (8 Sep) | $57 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald (14 Aug) | $38 |
| Consensus (14 analysts) | $29.67 |
| UBS (21 Oct) | $18 |
| Wedbush (3 Nov) | $17 |
| XE stock (3 Nov) | $10.37 |
Amazon funds the next plant; AEP holds its money until at least 2030
Amazon+0.96% — Amazon, up 0.96 percent today is paying milestone-based development funding for the next plant in the pipeline, a 12-reactor, 960-megawatt station at utility American Electric Power's−0.18% — American Electric Power, down 0.18 percent today retired Breed coal site in Sullivan County, Indiana, the second deployment in a partnership targeting more than 5 gigawatts of US nuclear by 2039 578. AEP's chairman, Bill Fehrman, told analysts on October 28 that the work is "limited to development activities and feasibility work requiring minimal investment by AEP," with a final investment decision at the earliest "sometime in 2030," the caution we reported on October 30 6.
Two dates now matter most: the NRC's permit decision for Long Mott, which its independent safety advisers have already backed, and November 12, when the third-quarter filing shows how much cash X-energy holds while it waits 14.
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