2790亿美元押注:英伟达锁定2027年全球AI存储约37%份额
摩根士丹利估算,英伟达、谷歌母公司Alphabet和AMD三家将合计拿下2027年全球高带宽内存(HBM)85%的份额,其中英伟达一家约占37%,支撑这一布局的,是其已披露的2790亿美元供应承诺。DDR5市场眼下正在为此埋单,下一个观察节点是英伟达11月的财报。
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
英伟达"买下"存储市场的那个季度
英伟达的供应承诺——即公司承诺向供应商采购的金额——在截至7月26日的财季内从1190亿美元跃升至2790亿美元。英伟达将这一增长"主要"归因于存储芯片采购1。其中约2670亿美元将在2029财年结束前到期1。
黄仁勋9月17日表示,英伟达明年出售的芯片数量将是今年的两倍2。芯片翻倍,意味着存储也要翻倍,而存储早已被预订一空。
三个买家,拿下85%的货架
9月25日汇总的采购数据显示,仅英伟达一家的采购承诺,就相当于2027年全球高带宽内存产量的约37%3。摩根士丹利的份额拆分为:英伟达占37.3%,谷歌母公司Alphabet占36%,AMD占12.1%,合计85%45。三家公司握有AI最稀缺投入品的"产权证",其余所有人只能排在队尾苦等。
三家买家握有2027年HBM产能的85%,其余厂商分享剩下的15%
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 英伟达 (estimate) | 37.3% |
| Alphabet (estimate) | 36% |
| 其他厂商 (estimate) | 14.6% |
| AMD (estimate) | 12.1% |
每多一片HBM晶圆,就少一片DDR5晶圆
HBM耗用的晶圆产能是普通DRAM的三倍以上,而且所用光刻机无法再转回服务器内存生产53。三星已将过半的4纳米产能拨给HBM4基础裸片(base die)生产,存储厂商一侧的这场挤压,本刊9月22日已有报道6。三星、SK海力士与美光掌控着全球90%以上的DRAM晶圆产能3,三家2027年的HBM订单已全部排满,新增产能要到2027年年底才能到位4。
代价正沿产业链向下游传导。一线服务器厂商已将库存削减至仅够8至11周供应的水平3,PC、服务器和汽车买家则排在更后面。德国零售渠道的DDR5价格已较2025年7月的基准水平高出544%;在美国,32GB内存套装价格一度在72美元附近见底,如今已涨至409美元7。
另一阵营：所谓短缺不过是营销话术
宏碁首席执行官陈俊圣表示,存储厂商正在夸大产能吃紧的程度,以守住被AI推高的利润率,并预计随着中国长鑫存储(CXMT)产能爬坡,2027年年中之后价格将回落8。但他本人的预测也承认,PC价格会先上涨5%至20%,并持续到第四季度8。SK海力士凭借6月一项据报道规模达5000亿美元的合作协议,据估计握有Vera Rubin平台HBM4供货量60%至70%的份额95,没什么动力附和这一说法。
11月是下一个检验时点
上一季度,随着大笔预付款流出,英伟达经营性现金流从503亿美元降至241亿美元,缩水超过一半10。按公司指引,毛利率将在2026财年第四季度跌至71%至72%的低点,彼时涨价尚未见效1。英伟达提示,一旦数据中心部署放缓,不断攀升的供应承诺将构成风险3。在11月底的财报电话会议更新这一数字之前,争夺最后15%的队伍已经排起;而Vera Rubin的批量出货,要到2027年上半年才会启动3。
存储预付款流出,英伟达上季度经营性现金流腰斩
Data
| 经营性现金流 | |
|---|---|
| 23财年Q3 | $7.33B |
| 23财年Q4 | $11.5B |
| 24财年Q1 | $15.35B |
| 24财年Q2 | $14.49B |
| 24财年Q3 | $17.63B |
| 24财年Q4 | $16.63B |
| 25财年Q1 | $27.41B |
| 25财年Q2 | $15.37B |
| 25财年Q3 | $23.75B |
| 25财年Q4 | $36.19B |
| 26财年Q1 | $50.34B |
| 26财年Q2 | $24.08B |
How this brief was made
01Gathered & sourced359 channels · 2,199 articles▾
Agents swept 359 channels and ingested 2,199 articles, then de-duplicated and ranked them for signal.
02Verified & cross-validated11 claims · 14 data feeds▾
Every one of 11 load-bearing claims was checked against primary sources, with 14 live data feeds reconciling the figures and charts.
- 1The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, "Nvidia's Supply Commitments More Than Doubled to $279 Billion. Here's What It Does to the Stock," 27 August 2026
- 2CNBC via MSN, "Jensen Huang says Nvidia will sell twice as many chips next year," 17 September 2026
- 3East Asia Brief, "Nvidia locks up 37% of global HBM supply for AI accelerators," 27 September 2026
- 4Crypto Briefing, "Nvidia, Alphabet, AMD secure 85% of 2027 HBM supply," 19 September 2026
- 5The Motley Fool via MSN, "The HBM bottleneck: 3 tech companies have locked up 85% of the supply of AI's scarcest asset," 18 September 2026
- 6Stocktwits via MSN, "Samsung Reportedly Ramps 4nm Capacity For Memory Chips, Stepping Up Competition With SK Hynix, Micron," 22 September 2026
- 7TechRadar via MSN, "DDR5 RAM appears to be spiralling out of control: it's 5.5x pricier than before the memory crisis," 16 September 2026
- 8Notebookcheck, "Acer CEO says memory makers are hyping the 2030 shortage to protect margins, predicts prices fall by mid-2027," 23 September 2026
- 9TechTimes, "Nvidia Vera Rubin Enters Full Production: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Named HBM4 Suppliers," 2 June 2026
- 10Sharadar quarterly fundamentals from Nvidia's SEC filings, retrieved 28 September 2026
- 11Sharadar quarterly fundamentals, from Nvidia's SEC filings, retrieved 28 September 2026
03Reviewed & edited1 human editor▾
One editor read the draft against the evidence, tuned the framing, and signed off before it shipped.
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