Pinterest's record 661 million users grew where ads pay least, and Q4 revenue growth is guided as low as 8%
Pinterest's Q3 release carried record users and decelerating money at once: 661 million monthly actives, 12% revenue growth that still missed, and a fourth-quarter guide as low as 8%. The AI ad machine is working; it is wired to a fraction of the base.
Richard Tang · 4 min read
Pinterest−12.07% — Pinterest, down 12.07 percent today put both of its stories in one release on Thursday, October 29: a record 661 million monthly users, and decelerating money 1. Revenue grew 12% and missed both the Street's $1.2 billion forecast and the company's own range 124. Adjusted earnings, which strip out one-time gains and costs, came to 46 cents against the 50 analysts expected 2. The fourth-quarter guide implies 8 to 12% growth, slower than the quarter just printed 1.
The mechanism is geographic: growth has moved to users advertisers pay pennies to reach, while the money is squeezed out of a US and Canada base that grew 4% 1. Nothing in the release or the call indicts the AI systems; the constraint has moved to the commercial wiring between a working model and a paying advertiser. Since our piece on Meta's+1.37% — Meta, up 1.37 percent today TikTok ad ban shifting budgets toward Pinterest, the new facts are this print and this guide 3.
Revenue crossed $1 billion a quarter in 2024; Q4 is now guided to as little as 8% growth
- Revenue, $B
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue, $B | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $0.76B |
| Q4 '23 | $0.98B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.74B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.85B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.9B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.15B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.86B |
| Q2 '25 | $1B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.05B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.32B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.01B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.18B |
| Q3 '26 | $1.18B |
| Q4 '26E (estimate) | $1.45B ($1.425–1.477B) |
The AI products work where demand is already wired in
Chief executive Bill Ready described a search product that runs on AI by default: 70% of search journeys begin with a proactive recommendation before a user types anything, and queries through the Pinterest Assistant, now generally available in the United States, run about 80% commercial 4. Pinterest trains freely available open-weight models on its own data, and says a transaction costs less than 8% of what comparable closed models would 4.
The payoff lands where advertisers already pay. US and Canada revenue grew 14% on that 4% user base 1. About six in ten Pinterest users sit in the rest of the world, and they produced $87 million of the quarter's revenue 1.
A US or Canadian user is worth $8.38 a quarter; a rest-of-world user, 23 cents
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| US & Canada | $8.38 |
| Europe | $1.21 |
| Rest of World | $0.23 |
Customs changes and thin sales coverage caused the slowdown
Europe is where the money stalled. The EU removed its de minimis customs exemption, which had let low-value shipments in without duty, and the cross-border sellers who ship that way pulled back ad spend to protect margins, with fewer large markets left to reroute into after last year's US tariffs 4.
Three of the six points of sequential slowdown came from that pullback, two from event timing, one from currency 4. Europe's revenue was flat and its revenue per user fell 7% 1. The pullback alone was an 11-point drag on the region's growth 4.
That is the unglamorous middle of the chain: measurement, local demand, sales coverage. Those hops between a working model and a paying advertiser are what Pinterest spent the quarter rebuilding.
Growth dropped six points in Q3, and the guide points as low as 8%
- Revenue growth, % y/y
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue growth, % y/y | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | 17.7% |
| Q4 '24 | 17.6% |
| Q1 '25 | 15.5% |
| Q2 '25 | 16.9% |
| Q3 '25 | 16.8% |
| Q4 '25 | 14.3% |
| Q1 '26 | 17.8% |
| Q2 '26 | 18.2% |
| Q3 '26 | 12% |
| Q4 '26E (estimate) | 10% (8–12%) |
Pinterest is rebuilding the wiring, and the cash came through
The company is re-running the playbook that reaccelerated North America: new sales leadership across international markets, programmatic partnerships with demand-side platforms (the software advertisers buy ads through) covering two-thirds of that market, a visual search ad format in beta and a new app-install objective 4. GAAP net income, the bottom line under standard accounting, fell 77% 1. Restructuring charges, the TV Scientific acquisition and a tax swing sit behind the $21.5 million figure; adjusted earnings, which exclude those, are the 46 cents above 124.
The quarter still produced $300 million of free cash flow 1. In a session Alphabet's−13.74% — Alphabet, down 13.74 percent today miss dragged tech stocks down more than 12%, Alphabet spent more on capital projects than its operations brought in for a second straight quarter 67. Pinterest shares fell 14.2% to $17.19 immediately after the release 5.
The fourth quarter will test the wiring explanation
Two claims from the call are checkable in the next print. Europe's core enterprise business, excluding cross-border sellers, halved its growth rate in Q3 but has already re-accelerated above its Q2 level quarter-to-date in Q4 4. Management does not expect cross-border spend back for the holiday, and calls the customs disruption "probably a multi-quarter event" 4.
If Europe inflects while the drag persists, the wiring explanation holds. If Europe stays flat and revenue lands at the guide's low end, the constraint is structural, and a sales reorganization will not fix it. Closing the distance between 661 million users and the advertisers who monetize them takes measurement, local demand and sales coverage, built market by market. Pinterest's own teams are doing that work now, and the Europe line in the Q4 print will show how fast it is landing.
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