PPL's 31.8 GW pipeline in advanced planning waits on a transmission tariff; plan update November 6

Two Pennsylvania data-center transmission projects moved this week, and both raise the same question: who pays for the wires. On October 23, PPL Electric Utilities▼−0.96% — PPL Electric Utilities, down 0.96 percent today proposed 16 miles of new high-voltage line and a substation near Mount Carmel to serve a data-center customer it has not named, and revealed the preferred 6.8-mile route↗ for a separate line to a campus the developer PNK Group wants at Allenwood ¹².

The verdict on what this buildout is worth lands on November 6, when PPL pairs third-quarter earnings↗ with its annual business plan update, the first scheduled read on its size ³.

The customer-pays promise has a gap exactly where these projects sit

PPL's answer is a tariff. Its LP-6 rate class, which the company calls Pennsylvania's only PUC-approved large-load tariff, requires qualifying data-center customers to fund dedicated infrastructure, post financial security, commit to minimum usage and accept exit protections so other customers are not left holding the bill ⁴. But LP-6 covers distribution-level infrastructure ⁴. The layer above it, transmission network upgrades, is addressed only by a proposed Consumer Protection Transmission Rider still pending before the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission ⁴.

The new projects sit exactly in the uncovered layer

That pending gap is where the new lines fall. The Mount Carmel project, the Natalie Transmission Project, is roughly 10 miles of 500-kilovolt line, 6 miles of 230-kilovolt line and a new substation, entirely transmission-scale infrastructure ¹. At Allenwood the model is working as designed so far: PPL's regional affairs director Jonah Howe said the developer is footing the bill under a binding large-voltage tariff agreement, "the customer is paying for the project" ². Whether that holds for every future project is exactly what the rider and the PUC proceeding will decide.

The demand is real, and priced in

The scale behind these lines is not speculative. The state PUC's Electric Power Outlook↗ forecasts industrial electricity demand in PPL's service territory, the fastest in the state, growing an average of about 51% a year through 2030, almost entirely from data centers ⁸. PPL's chief executive reported a pipeline of 31.8 gigawatts in advanced planning, over 11 gigawatts under signed agreements and more than 6.5 gigawatts under construction ⁸.

That is why HSBC initiated coverage of PPL with a Buy on data-center growth on October 22 ⁵⁶⁷. BofA▼−0.88% — BofA, down 0.88 percent today cut its target to $37 the same day on higher costs, and Barclays▼−1.45% — Barclays, down 1.45 percent today had trimmed to $38 from $41 on October 12 while staying Overweight; the demand camp and the cost camp are arguing about the same asset ⁵⁶⁷.

The resistance is organized on two fronts

Governor Josh Shapiro petitioned on October 16 to join the PUC's large-load proceeding to keep data-center costs off other customers' bills, and PPL responded that its framework already does that↗ ⁴. Locally, Mount Carmel Township supervisors received the Natalie project details by email at 2 p.m. on a Wednesday and voted 3-0 that same evening to oppose it, demanding disclosure of how construction and ongoing costs "would be divided between the new customer and other electric customers" ¹. PPL expects construction in spring 2028 with completion by early 2031, subject to PUC approval ¹.

At Allenwood, Union County sent PNK a cease-and-desist over substation work done before county approval, and the Gregg Township zoning vote is set for October 27 ⁹. The line itself is planned for late 2027 through the end of 2029 ².

What November 6 has to show

Three tells matter in the business plan. First, the capex figure for transmission buildouts like Natalie and Allenwood, which sets how much earning base the data-center demand adds ³.

Second, how much of that spend PPL shows as protected by LP-6 commitments and the pending transmission rider, the difference between growth billed to committed customers and growth absorbed into the general rate base ⁴. Third, the posture of the rider docket and the PUC proceeding now that the governor is a party ³⁴.

Firm commitments keep the premium; bare capex feeds the $37 camp

If the plan pairs big transmission capex with firm customer commitments, the premium over Duke▼−0.12% — Duke, down 0.12 percent today and AEP▼−0.87% — AEP, down 0.87 percent today holds. If the capex arrives without the protections, the $37 camp has the argument. PPL's next best move is to make the rider's protections so complete that the governor's case runs out of ground; the utility that closes that gap is the one that keeps the data-center business at a price regulators will sign.