PSEG raises its five-year regulated investment plan to $22.5-25.5 billion
The November 6 8-K grows the regulated build and pledges 6%-8% earnings growth through 2030 with no new equity, yet the large-load contracts behind the demand story are still unsigned, PJM's utilities just cut 6.5 GW from their forecasts, and the bill for the wait lands on New Jersey ratepayers through 2028.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
PSEG's−0.47% — PSEG, down 0.47 percent as of its last quote investor update filed with the SEC on November 6 raised the utility's regulated capital plan to $22.5-25.5 billion for 2026-2030, about $1.5 billion above the $21-24 billion set a year earlier, inside a $24-28 billion total program it says needs no new equity or asset sales through 2030 1. The pledge that sits on top is unchanged: 6%-8% annual operating earnings growth through 2030, carried by rate base compounding 6%-7.5% a year 1.
The regulated build grows $1.5 billion, inside a $28 billion program
- from
- to
Data
| from | to | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plan set in 2025 | $21.0 B | $24.0 B | +14.3% |
| Raised plan, Nov 2026 | $22.5 B | $25.5 B | +13.3% |
| Total program | $24.0 B | $28.0 B | +16.7% |
On the demand side, the same deck lists one live item: bilateral contracting with large-load customers for generation "continues to progress favorably" 1. Favorable progress, no contract. The only announced hyperscaler deal at the Salem nuclear plant PSEG co-owns sits on Constellation's 97 MW share of the uprate; PSEG's own 112 MW share is in the plan, online 2027-2029, and unpriced 17.
The 11.8 GW queue is mostly edge computing
Chief executive Ralph LaRossa told analysts PSE&G's large-load inquiries have held near the 11.8 GW disclosed in December 2025, and called the interest primarily "edge computing" rather than hyperscale data centers 5. Outside the fence, the forecast is moving the other way: utilities in the PJM grid's footprint, including PPL, FirstEnergy−0.30% — FirstEnergy, down 0.30 percent as of its last quote and AES Ohio, cut their near-term large-load forecasts by 6.5 GW in filings to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee 6.
Jefferies−2.31% — Jefferies, down 2.31 percent as of its last quote estimates the backstop auction PJM built to fill a 6.8 GW capacity shortfall could shrink to roughly 630 MW, less still if developers sign bilateral contracts like the ones PSEG is negotiating 6. FERC rejected most of PJM's original proposal in late September; the grid operator refiled a revised version on October 29 6.
PJM built the auction for 6.8 GW; Jefferies sizes it at 630 MW
The auction PJM built for 6.8 GW may buy 630 MW
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Auction target: 2028/29 shortfall | 6.8 GW |
| Cut from utility load forecasts | 6.5 GW |
| Estimated final procurement (estimate) | 0.63 GW |
Who carries the bill while the wait runs
The utility math does not wait for a data-center customer. Third-quarter net income fell to $376 million from $622 million a year earlier, while non-GAAP operating earnings rose to $574 million from $565 million 4. PSEG Power & Other swung to a $130 million net loss on mark-to-market items, with $68 million of operating earnings underneath 4. Guidance of $4.28-$4.40 a share stands 8.
Mark-to-market halved GAAP net income; operating earnings held
- GAAP net income
- Operating earnings
Data
| GAAP net income | Operating earnings | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $622 M | $565 M |
| Q3 2026 | $376 M | $574 M |
To bridge to the next rate case, PSE&G has filed a deferral proposal with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities: from January 2027 it would record a regulatory asset for interest and depreciation on infrastructure outside base rates, keeping distribution rates stable until new rates take effect in 2028, with a June 2027 filing date and the board's prudence review intact 1. The affordability politics are explicit: a 5% residential gas bill cut took effect October 1, and a PJM cost-allocation win returns about $65 million a year to transmission customers from 2027 15.
A contract would reprice the nuclear fleet; the fallback is 2028 rates
If a large-load contract lands, PSEG Power, today a $68 million operating quarter inside a GAAP loss, gains a multi-year price for nuclear output 14. If not, the 6%-8% pledge rests on BPU approvals running through 2028 1. Salem 1's refueling outage is expected to extend after an inspection found a degraded thermal shield inside the reactor vessel 7.
The stock closed at $75.03 on November 9 and traded near $74.60 on November 10; Ladenburg Thalmann cut its target to $75.50 from $80.50 on November 3 9. Two dated checks decide it: PJM's January 2027 load forecast sets the auction 6, and June 2027 opens the rate case 1.
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