Constellation Energy CEO calls data-center demand forecasts massively overstated; GE Vernova stock fell 7.4%
Two power CEOs told the market within three days that the grid-queue numbers behind the AI buildout were padded by speculation. The repricing lands on developers and equipment makers; the incumbents with power already sold are watching their contracts, not the queues.
Richard Tangthree-minute read
Constellation Energy's−2.93% — Constellation Energy, down 2.93 percent as of its last quote CEO said on Monday's third-quarter call that utilities and grid operators "did not do a good job estimating the real number of data centers," and that the error "resulted in a massive overestimation" 1. On the same call the company raised its 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance for a second time this year, to $12.50 to $12.80 per share 1.
Vistra's−1.53% — Vistra, down 1.53 percent today chief executive gave the same diagnosis on Friday, blaming speculative developers for overstated grid-queue numbers, especially in ERCOT 1. The AI power complex repriced on Tuesday: Constellation fell 3.87%, Vistra 3.06%, and GE Vernova−3.53% — GE Vernova, down 3.53 percent today 7.4% after SoftBank revised equipment procurement for its US data center projects and booked a $3.7 billion charge 12.
GE Vernova took the worst of Tuesday's repricing, down 7.4%
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Constellation | -3.87% |
| Vistra | -3.06% |
| GE Vernova | -7.4% |
If the queues are padded, who pays
If Dominguez is right, the losses should land on whoever sized plants, debt and rate plans against those queue numbers: the developers holding placeholder projects, the equipment makers counting on their orders, and possibly the ratepayers behind the biggest utility buildout plans. GE Vernova, which sells the turbines, is the clearest named exposure so far 2.
Constellation's multiple has already come down from 38x to 23x, with room to a 16x floor
Data
| Forward P/E | |
|---|---|
| October 2025 peak | 38 |
| Today (Nov 2026) | 23 |
| 3-year average | 26 |
| Dec 2023 low | 16 |
The incumbents with power already sold
Both CEOs can afford the diagnosis because their output is contracted. Constellation signed about 4,560 megawatts of new long-term agreements since its last report, more than 8,500 megawatts this year running into the 2040s, and expects about 45% of its clean baseload fleet hedged by 2032 1. Vistra has signed over 4 gigawatts of long-term power purchase agreements and lifted its 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.7 to $8.5 billion 1. A padded queue hurts projects waiting for demand; it does not change what a signed contract pays.
The challenger betting the queues were right
Venture Global, the LNG exporter, is going the other way. It reported frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands on its Louisiana sites, expects to begin delivering compute capacity in late 2028 and to scale to about 5 gigawatts by the end of 2031, and describes itself as a potential vertically integrated AI utility 3. Those are equipment frame agreements, not data center customer contracts; that is a bet the demand Dominguez calls overstated shows up anyway.
What would settle it
Watch two tests. FERC is expected to rule in the first half of 2027 on large loads sited next to power plants, which could make the next deals easier or harder to sign 1. And watch whether Venture Global converts any of those 16 power islands into signed compute customers before the turbines ship 3. Capital should follow signed buyers, not queue positions; the FERC ruling and Venture Global's first contract will tell us which side the market has to believe.
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