Red Cat splits Wall Street: a $6 price target against $25, with results due November 16
Piper Sandler cut its target on Red Cat Holdings to $6 on October 23, the same week Red Cat opened orders for two uncrewed boats through its Blue Ops division and signed a takeover agreement for Austria's Steyr Motors. Six of seven analysts still say Buy at a $16.14 average, and the November 16 third-quarter report against $150 million to $180 million of guidance is the test.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The charge: Piper's $6 against a street at $16
On October 23, Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries cut his price target on Red Cat−10.20% — Red Cat, down 10.20 percent today Holdings from $9 to $6 and kept his Neutral rating 1. Red Cat is the Salt Lake City maker of drones and uncrewed boats, including the U.S. Army's Black Widow short-range reconnaissance drone 29. The rest of the street sits on the other side of his call: six of seven analysts who rated the stock in the past three months say Buy, at an average target of $16.14, with Roth MKM at $25 3.
Shares closed at $4.87 on October 27, near the 52-week low of $4.14, for a $743.7 million market value 3; the October 29 close was $5.05 4. The average target stands at more than three times the share price.
One stock, seven targets: Piper at $6, Roth at $25
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | $6 |
| Northland | $13 |
| Evercore ISI | $15 |
| Needham | $15 |
| Clear Street | $19 |
| H.C. Wainwright | $20 |
| Roth MKM | $25 |
The evidence: $35.7 million booked against a $150 million floor
The filings are short and dated. Second-quarter revenue was $20.2 million, up 527% from a year earlier; the net loss was $35.3 million; cash was $325.6 million at June 30 35. With $15.5 million booked in the first quarter 5, the half-year total is $35.7 million against reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $150 million to $180 million 3. Even the floor now takes roughly $57 million a quarter through December, close to triple the June quarter's print 35.
Revenue is climbing and still a third of the pace guidance needs
Data
| Quarterly revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $1.63M |
| Q2 2025 | $3.22M |
| Q3 2025 | $9.65M |
| Q4 2025 | $26.23M |
| Q1 2026 | $15.47M |
| Q2 2026 | $20.19M |
The exhibits: orderable boats, a conditional tender, an unverified $200 million
The bull case is announcements. Blue Ops, the maritime division, opened orders for the 18-foot B-18 and the 39-foot B-39 on October 22, the B-39 already in low-rate production and the B-26 flagship in full-rate production 23; the release names no customers and no revenue 2.
The bid for Steyr Motors, an Austrian maker of high-performance diesel engines whose marine engines Red Cat already fits in the B-26 73, was announced October 19 and formalized in a business combination agreement with SMOT Acquisition, a wholly owned Red Cat subsidiary 61.
It offers €39 in cash for all 5,251,261 shares, about €205 million 1, with anchor holder B&C Holding committed to tender its 15% and Steyr's chief executive, Julian Cassutti, his own shares 6. Completion still needs 50% plus one share and clearances in Austria, Italy, Australia and the United Kingdom; the tender closes December 18 61. Steyr trades at €35.37, about 9% below the offer 7.
One weekly recap calls the acquisition closed and says SRR2, a U.S 8. Army program, could bring more than $200 million over two years; it is an AI-generated summary naming no document 8.
The verdict watch: November 16
Third-quarter results land after the close on November 16 13. Piper's $6 values the losses and today's multiple; the bulls' $16 to $25 values a Navy buying 30 medium uncrewed vessels at about $40 million each, from three other builders so far 3, plus $325.6 million of cash that funds the bid 35. The B-18 and B-39 are open for orders; Red Cat has named no customer, and November 16 is when it has to show booked revenue 23.
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