Samsung asks triple for HBM4, and the buyers answer this month
Samsung has opened annual HBM talks by asking more than triple the HBM3E rate for HBM4, with negotiations in their final stage this month. The buyers who would pay have already pre-sold 2027 capacity the other way.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Samsung wants $4-plus a gigabit for HBM4, against roughly $1.50 for the HBM3E it sells today, and the buyers get to answer this month 1. That is the datacenter end of a squeeze that is already billing every buyer of an AI rack.
The ask is triple, and the window closes now
Annual HBM talks set most of next year's volume, and negotiations are reportedly in their final stage this month 1. Samsung started mass-producing HBM4 only in February 2026 1, so it is asking Nvidia and the hyperscalers to pay a price the qualification results cannot yet verify. The caveat in the report is the whole bet: acceptance depends heavily on qualification, supply availability and how rivals price HBM4 1.
Rivals have already pre-sold the shortage
Samsung still leads DRAM revenue, but the ground is moving. Counterpoint put Q2 2026 share at 38% Samsung, 25% SK hynix and 24% Micron, and Micron's fiscal Q4 printed a record $54.23 billion in revenue with an 86.8% gross margin, with more than 75% of its 2027 production already under contract 1. The customers have less leverage than they think, because the capacity is spoken for.
Samsung leads DRAM at 38%, but Micron has closed to within a point of SK hynix
- Samsung3838%
- SK hynix2525%
- Micron2424%
- Other1313%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 38 | 38% |
| SK hynix | 25 | 25% |
| Micron | 24 | 24% |
| Other | 13 | 13% |
The component layer confirms the re-pricing
One tier down the same supply chain, buyers are prepaying. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has booked about 3.6 trillion won of AI component supply deals across five contracts this year, the latest a 290 billion won MLCC and inductor agreement for 2027 delivery 23. AI servers use more than 10 times as many MLCCs as conventional servers, and Goldman Sachs projects that market to nearly quadruple from $1.4 billion in 2025 to $5.8 billion in 2030 3. Hana Securities says these buyers have high price tolerance, and FC-BGA substrate lead times now run 48 to 56 weeks against a normal 12 2.
Five deals, 3.6 trillion won: buyers are reserving 2027 component supply a year early
Data
| Disclosed LTAs signed in 2026, trillion won | |
|---|---|
| Silicon caps, May | 1.56 |
| MLCC, Sept | 1.07 |
| MLCC, June | 0.45 |
| MLCC/inductors, this week | 0.29 |
| Remainder of 5 deals | 0.23 |
Who carries the risk
If the ask lands, the memory supercycle re-rates Samsung's entire HBM book; KB Securities already expects Samsung's HBM prices to rise more than 100% in 2027 and TrendForce expects blended HBM pricing up 121% 1. If the buyers refuse, this becomes the first hard price the supercycle declined to pay, and Samsung carries the empty fab. The qualification results, and the final signed prices, are the tell to watch this month.
Deep dive into the numbers below before deciding either way.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
