Sempra reports November 5 with a Cameron LNG unit down, ECA LNG late, and shares at 24.9 times earnings
Sempra reports on November 5 with a Cameron LNG train offline, ECA LNG pushed to the fourth quarter, and a 24.9-times earnings price resting on a Texas load queue that no filing yet confirms.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The cash engines are running a train short
On October 28, Sempra+0.20% — Sempra, up 0.20 percent today, the San Diego energy holding company, said one of three liquefaction trains at Cameron LNG, its Louisiana export plant, was down for scheduled maintenance 1. Feedgas, the gas piped into the plant, fell to about 1.3 billion cubic feet a day against roughly 2 billion when all three trains run 1. Sempra Infrastructure owns 50.2% of the 13.5-million-tonne-a-year facility 1. Mexico is later still: ECA LNG Phase 1 in Ensenada shipped its first cargo on July 8 2, then found damaged refrigerant compressors during planned inspections, and substantial completion slipped from summer into the fourth quarter 3.
Sempra reports third-quarter results before the open on November 5: consensus is $1.22 of earnings per share on $3.31 billion of revenue, inside full-year guidance of $4.80 to $5.30 4.
The premium buys a queue no filing confirms
The stock closed at $86.06, up 9.8% in a month and down 4.1% for the year, priced at 24.9 times earnings against 20.2 times for US integrated utility peers 5. The premium buys Texas. Large-load requests in Oncor's Batch Zero review, the process by which the Sempra-controlled Texas utility studies huge new connections, equal about 140% of Oncor's current peak load and carry more than $2 billion of customer collateral, according to a Simply Wall St valuation narrative 5. Searches of Sempra and Oncor releases turn up no filing-grade version of that figure.
The queue is a promise; the collateral behind it is cash. The revenue base underneath has gone sideways meanwhile: $3.33 billion in the third quarter of 2023, $3.00 billion in the second quarter of 2026 6.
Sempra's quarterly revenue has gone nowhere in three years
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $3.33B |
| Q4 '23 | $3.49B |
| Q1 '24 | $3.64B |
| Q2 '24 | $3.01B |
| Q3 '24 | $2.78B |
| Q4 '24 | $3.76B |
| Q1 '25 | $3.8B |
| Q2 '25 | $3B |
| Q3 '25 | $3.15B |
| Q4 '25 | $3.75B |
| Q1 '26 | $3.66B |
| Q2 '26 | $3B |
Five banks cut their targets; all still sit above the price
October's trims ran wide: BofA−2.19% — BofA, down 2.19 percent today to $88 from $101, Barclays−3.55% — Barclays, down 3.55 percent today to $90 from $103, Goldman Sachs−3.64% — Goldman Sachs, down 3.64 percent today to $103 from $110, BTIG to $100 from $106, BMO to $97 from $99 7. The same desks were already cutting when Petrobras+0.72% — Petrobras, up 0.72 percent today signed its 20-year offtake, covered here on October 16; they did not stop 7.
Consensus across 21 analysts still averages $97.42 against an $86.06 close 7. The bull case rests on posted money: HSBC started coverage at Buy with a $97.50 target on October 22 7, the dividend runs $2.63 a year, a 3.1% yield on a 76% payout ratio 4, and second-quarter earnings beat at $1.16 against $1.01 expected 4.
October's cuts took five bank targets down; the lowest still sits above the stock
- Previous target
- October target
Data
| Previous target | October target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $110 | $103 | -6.4% |
| BofA | $101 | $88 | -12.9% |
| Barclays | $103 | $90 | -12.6% |
| BTIG | $106 | $100 | -5.7% |
| BMO | $99 | $97 | -2.0% |
PG&E opened the California door
On October 22, PG&E chief executive Patti Poppe said her utility might spin off or sell its four-million-customer gas business to cut wildfire-inflated financing costs, and named Edison International−1.97% — Edison International, down 1.97 percent today and, on a smaller scale, Sempra as issuers paying the same penalty 8. PG&E−0.60% — PG&E, down 0.60 percent today has already cut $2 billion from its 2027 capital plan and promised strategic-review answers by summer 8. Three readings settle Sempra's month: Cameron feedgas back at 2 billion cubic feet a day or stuck near 1.3, a dated ECA completion, and one filing-grade number for the Texas queue 8.
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