SiTime's November 4 print tests a guided doubling, with targets from $370 to $900

A guide that doubles the company in one quarter

SiTime▼−5.54% — SiTime, down 5.54 percent today reports third-quarter results on November 4↗ after the Nasdaq close, and management has already named the bar: revenue of $285 million to $295 million and non-GAAP earnings of $3.50 to $3.65 a share↗, against $157.4 million and $2.34 in the second quarter ^{1 11}. That guide is 3.5 times the $83.6 million the quarter did a year ago ³. The Santa Clara company, run by chief executive Rajesh Vashist, replaces quartz crystals with silicon MEMS clocks that keep AI data center gear in step ².

Bought from Renesas as much as grown

The doubling is bought as much as grown. SiTime closed its purchase of the Renesas timing business on July 1↗, paying $1.5 billion in cash plus about 4.13 million shares, about $3 billion at the collar midpoint ⁵. The acquired clocking line is expected to add at least $300 million of revenue in its first twelve months at roughly 70 percent gross margin, three quarters of it from AI, datacenter and communications customers ⁶.

The quarter that began July 1 is the first to consolidate it ³. If the acquired business paces evenly near $75 million, the guide's midpoint leaves about $215 million for the legacy company, 37 percent above Q2 ³. The organic split arrives only with the print.

Fourteen million dollars of trailing profit

The base under a $14.9 billion market cap is thin ³⁴. Four quarters of GAAP net income sum to roughly $14 million ³, behind a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 1,014 on October 20 ⁴. Q2's $18.2 million of GAAP profit leaned on $12.5 million of interest income; operations earned $8.2 million ². Non-GAAP net income of $65.6 million added back $31.0 million of stock compensation among other items ².

The stock closed October 20 at $497.11, 45 percent below its May 11 high of $901.81 ⁴. Insiders sold $501.8 million of stock in twelve months with no purchases ⁷, $10.1 million of it in the past ninety days at prices near $700 ⁸, while institutions hold 84.31 percent of the shares ⁸.

Growth 8 of 10, profitability 3 of 10

The bulls have numbers too. Q2 beat consensus on both lines, non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 67.1 percent from 58.2 percent, and the balance sheet holds $1.92 billion of cash after a $1.2 billion zero-coupon convertible issue due 2031 ^{2 8}. GuruFocus↗ still marks the stock modestly undervalued against a $559.69 fair value, scoring growth 8 of 10 and profitability 3 of 10 ⁷. SiTime's own engineers put the AI stakes plainly: GPU clusters achieve 35 to 45 percent of their potential compute when clocks drift↗ ¹⁰.

November 4 decides the spread

The targets straddle the tape. Morgan Stanley▼−2.14% — Morgan Stanley, down 2.14 percent today has held $370, below the market, since September 17↗ ⁹; the stock closed October 21 at $509.20 ¹². Rosenblatt initiated at $750 on October 20↗ ⁴; Benchmark sits at $850 and Needham at $900, around a twelve-firm consensus of $717.78 ⁸. Zacks and Wall Street Zen have both cut to Hold ⁸. Watch revenue inside the guide, earnings near $3.50, and how much of the quarter is Renesas▼−2.70% — Renesas, down 2.70 percent today ⁸. Morgan Stanley's $370 and Needham's $900 cannot both survive the print ⁸.