SK hynix's $45 billion New York NAND bet waits on US export licenses for its Dalian fab
Commerce has held up the export licenses Dalian needs, and Dalian's cash is what Solidigm's $45 billion New York NAND build was counting on. Talks have narrowed to gear just to keep the Chinese plant running in 2027.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Solidigm, the American NAND subsidiary of South Korea's SK hynix+5.21% — SK hynix, up 5.21 percent today, wants to spend about $45 billion on two memory-chip plants in Marcy, New York, a figure that could reach $100 billion over time 3. The money was supposed to come from China. Increased production at Dalian, the NAND fab SK hynix bought from Intel for $9 billion in 2020, would fund the US build, the company told Washington 35.
Washington has not paid up. The Commerce Department has yet to approve the export licenses Dalian needs for American chipmaking equipment from suppliers like Lam Research+11.18% — Lam Research, up 11.18 percent today, Applied Materials+7.99% — Applied Materials, up 7.99 percent today and KLA+7.78% — KLA, up 7.78 percent today 35. At a meeting last week, Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler held to the line that the US will not license tools that upgrade or expand capacity in China, even though filling Dalian's empty 2023 cleanroom adds no capacity, as SK hynix argues 34. Talks have narrowed to a separate 2027 license just to keep Dalian running 13.
The clock is real
Solidigm executives have met Commerce officials nearly ten times since late August, including co-CEO Richard Chin with Secretary Howard Lutnick; Oneida County's executive expects an answer within weeks, before a federal investment tax credit expires on December 31 3.
Fallbacks that do not fill a $45 billion hole
Solidigm's fallback, an IPO, was halted on October 23 citing market conditions 3. This week SK hynix formalized Hyaico Corp, a US investment arm with up to $10 billion of capacity chaired by SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, funded by capital calls 6. That is a complement, not a substitute, for a $45 billion fab bill 6.
The $45 billion New York plan against the numbers around it
The New York build dwarfs everything else SK hynix has pledged in the US
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Dalian purchase, 2020 | 9B |
| Hyaico arm, max capacity | 10B |
| New York plan, proposed | 45B |
| New York plan, potential (estimate) | 100B |
Shareholders are already paying: the stock fell 7.74% on November 4 and is down about 30% in a month, though still up 97.70% year to date 7.
The counterpoint: Commerce has not formally denied anything, officials appeared eager to land the investment, and Goldman Sachs+0.70% — Goldman Sachs, up 0.70 percent today called the sector's selloff excessively pessimistic 37. Watch the license decision, the December 31 tax-credit deadline, and a new Congress sworn in January 3 37. If Dalian stalls, NAND supply stays tighter for longer, and Micron+8.65% — Micron, up 8.65 percent today collects the difference.
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