SpaceX posts its first profit, $4.4 billion, as AI compute revenue passes Starlink and launch combined
The rocket company's first profit since its June listing came from the AI segment, now bigger than Starlink and launch combined. Whether Musk's $500 billion to $1 trillion forecast for 2027 arrives turns on how fast SpaceX can build, and on lease terms that let tenants walk.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
SpaceX's+7.70% — SpaceX, up 7.70 percent today first profit as a public company came from renting out computing capacity, not from flying rockets 12. Net income was $4.4 billion in the third quarter, against the $1.57 billion analysts had expected and a loss a year earlier 12. Revenue climbed 161 percent to $14.58 billion 12. The biggest business line is no longer Starlink, the satellite internet service: the AI segment earned $7.56 billion, mostly renting data-center capacity to the developers Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B, Alphabet's−1.46% — Alphabet, down 1.46 percent today Google and Reflection AI$2.1B — Reflection AI, private, latest valuation $2.1B 12. That is more than Starlink and the launch business combined 13.
AI compute passed Starlink and launch combined in Q3
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| AI compute (Super Intelligence) | $7.56B |
| Starlink (Connectivity) | $5.2B |
| Launch (Space) | $1.8B |
The beat ran past what options had priced
Traders had priced a move of about 7 percent in either direction 4. The stock opened about 10 percent higher at $160.70, still below its first close since the June listing 45. The next quarter is guided to $33 billion to $37 billion of revenue, against a $22 billion consensus 3.
Elon Musk, SpaceX's chief executive, confirmed the night's second story: Tesla and SpaceX have each formed a special committee of independent directors to weigh a merger, which he called "a good idea" while noting he is out of those talks as a conflicted party and that shareholders would have to approve any deal 12. Tesla+3.71% — Tesla, up 3.71 percent today reports tonight 4.
Two forecasts separated by a build-out
Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen anchored the company at about $100 billion of annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026, a figure measured on December's revenue 25. Musk, off script, put the same metric "somewhere between $500 billion and a trillion" a year later 2.
The signed book cannot close that gap: backlog is $63 billion, with about $42 billion expected to become revenue within a year 5. The end-2027 range turns on how fast the racks fill and at what price per watt, not on contracts already banked 5.
Musk is aiming at 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027 and says the price per watt keeps rising 6. At top-tier prices near $50 million a megawatt, that fleet is worth more than $600 billion of annual run rate on the arithmetic of Daniel Newman, chief executive of the research firm Futurum 4.
The guided Q4 build bill runs far past the cash the business throws off
- Estimate
Data
| Value | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 operating cash flow (estimate) | $13.1B | — |
| Q3 capex | $19.6B | — |
| Q4 capex (guided) (estimate) | $37.5B | $35–40B |
The tenants can leave
The marquee AI tenant is Anthropic, which could pay SpaceX up to $84.5 billion for compute through 2029 7. Most of that capacity can be canceled on 90 days' notice, while more than $250 billion of what Anthropic owes Google, Amazon−0.03% — Amazon, down 0.03 percent today and Microsoft+0.05% — Microsoft, up 0.05 percent today runs seven to ten years and cannot be canceled at all 7.
The compute market is splitting into anchor suppliers with decade-long guarantees and swing suppliers with large contracts and weak ones, and SpaceX sits on the weak side of that line 7. Barron's read the same demand-and-pricing comments as welcome news for CoreWeave−0.60% — CoreWeave, down 0.60 percent today, another listed compute landlord 8.
The first test arrives in December
Even the nearer anchor rests on racks not yet built: the fleet ended September at 1.7 gigawatts, and Johnsen expects 2.5 to 3 gigawatts online by year-end 5. The bill is the observable constraint. Fourth-quarter capital spending is guided at $35 billion to $40 billion 12. Operating cash flow last quarter was $13.1 billion 3. Musk's answer on demand is his own claim: "I don't think we're going to have a demand issue here" 3. December's run rate against the $100 billion anchor is the first number that tells the two forecasts apart 5.
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