TSMC broke its own rule to add a 3nm fab. Two days later, four workers died.
On October 19 TSMC broke a decades-old rule to add a fourth 3nm line, and on October 21 a scaffolding collapse at its Kaohsiung site killed four workers and stopped some construction. The 2027 and 2028 AI chip schedule now sits on an island where the buildout just cost four lives.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
On October 19, 2026, TSMC+1.38% — TSMC, up 1.38 percent today chairman C.C 12. Wei told investors his company was doing something it does not do: building more capacity for a chip node that had already hit its target. "In the past, it was common not to further expand capacity once a specific node's capacity reached its target," Wei said on the third-quarter earnings call. AI demand made TSMC break its own rule, adding a fourth 3nm plant, a second dedicated line in Tainan set for mass production in the first half of 2028 12.
Two days later, the bill for speed came due. Bloomberg reported on October 21 that TSMC suspended some construction at its Kaohsiung fab site in southern Taiwan after a scaffolding collapse killed four workers 34.
The proof the rule broke is in the numbers
The cannibalization is the tell: TSMC is converting part of its existing 5nm production line in Tainan to 3nm, taking capacity out of one node to feed the queue at another 12. The pull is visible in the revenue mix. 3nm rose to 33% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, up from 30% in the second, and advanced nodes together carried 79% of it 1. Q3 revenue came in at NT$1,494,243 million, up 50.9% year over year, with operating profit up 75.0% 1.
Revenue has climbed ten straight quarters as AI demand builds
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 18.5B |
| Q2 '24 | 20.7B |
| Q3 '24 | 24B |
| Q4 '24 | 26.7B |
| Q1 '25 | 25.4B |
| Q2 '25 | 31.9B |
| Q3 '25 | 32.5B |
| Q4 '25 | 33.5B |
| Q1 '26 | 35.4B |
| Q2 '26 | 39.8B |
The money is already committed to the south
TSMC's 2026 capital plan is $60 billion to $64 billion, with 2026 to 2028 investment set to "far exceed" the prior three years 1. The southern corridor carries the load: cumulative investment in the Tainan science park exceeds NT$1.86 trillion across 20 plants and more than 11,300 direct jobs 12.
Nvidia+2.42% — Nvidia, up 2.42 percent today and Apple+1.60% — Apple, up 1.60 percent today take an estimated 65% of TSMC's 3nm output, and only TSMC yields above 90% there, against roughly 60% at Samsung's rival 2nm process 25. That is why Nvidia put all three of its HBM base-die suppliers on TSMC's 3nm, and why Apple is locking the first wave of TSMC's 1.4nm 56.
TSMC holds 72.5% of the foundry market, 66.6 points clear of Samsung
- TSMC72.572.5%
- Samsung5.95.9%
- Other (derived remainder)21.621.6%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC | 72.5 | 72.5% |
| Samsung | 5.9 | 5.9% |
| Other (derived remainder) | 21.6 | 21.6% |
What the suspension does not touch
Bloomberg does not say which structure was stopped or for how long, and the Kaohsiung site is not the Tainan complex where the 3nm lines sit 12. The 3nm schedule stands as Wei laid it out: Tainan in early 2027, Arizona pulled forward to Q3 2027, Kumamoto in 2028, the new Tainan fab in early 2028 12.
But a buildout Wei describes as "expanding capacity at an unprecedented pace" 1 now carries four dead workers on the same island, and every date above assumes construction keeps running at that pace. Watch Kaohsiung's safety reviews and permitting next: that is where the schedule and the human cost meet.
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