Vertiv jumped 16% on an order number with no dollar value
Vertiv said organic orders more than doubled, then said it will stop publishing the figures that would show whether that growth is real megawatts or price inflation in the queue. February's annual report is the check.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
On October 28 Vertiv−0.94% — Vertiv, down 0.94 percent today, the data center power and cooling equipment maker, reported third-quarter sales of $4.31 billion, up 61%, and said organic orders more than doubled from a year earlier 1234. The shares jumped 16% 1234. But the order figure carried no dollar value, no book-to-bill ratio and no delivery schedule, and management said on the call it will not publish orders data going forward 1234. The next hard number is the year-end backlog in the annual report, due around February, last disclosed at $15.0 billion 23.
Vertiv rose on a percentage, then retired the yardstick.
Vertiv's sales accelerated from 19% growth in Q3 2024 to 61% in Q3 2026
Data
| Net sales | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | 2.07B |
| Q4 '24 | 2.35B |
| Q1 '25 | 2.04B |
| Q2 '25 | 2.64B |
| Q3 '25 | 2.68B |
| Q4 '25 | 2.88B |
| Q1 '26 | 2.65B |
| Q2 '26 | 3.27B |
| Q3 '26 | 4.31B |
A doubling of dollars is not a doubling of megawatts
The figure being rewarded is a percentage in a rising-price market. Cushman & Wakefield puts the all-in cost of a modern US or Canadian data center at $17.6 million per megawatt, up 21% since late 2024, with switchgear up 60% since December 2021 and transformer lead times running as long as 113 weeks 3.
An order book that doubled in dollars could therefore be flat in megawatts of shipped equipment, and Vertiv has removed the quarterly data that would settle the question. The company's own reporting calendar now makes February the only date with evidence.
Data center electrical gear has risen far faster than general inflation since 2021
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Switchgear | 60 |
| Copper | 46 |
| Generators, motors | 33 |
| Cooling equipment | 32 |
| Transformers | 29 |
What the cash and the customers say
Two other disclosures cut both ways. Customer prepayments reached $4.12 billion at September 30, more than double the end-2025 level, which is hard to square with buyers hedging on cancellations; but the quarterly inflow slowed to $490 million against $652 million of adjusted free cash flow 2. And the largest buyers are constrained by delivery, not budget: Microsoft+0.27% — Microsoft, up 0.27 percent today said the same evening that its $45.2 billion capex quarter came in below plan because third-party capacity arrived late 3. Vertiv's backlog coverage runs 12 to 18 months 24.
Customer prepayments have more than doubled since the end of 2025
Data
| Customer prepayments | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '23 | $0.64B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.74B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.89B |
| Q3 '24 | $1.02B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.06B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.1B |
| Q2 '25 | $1.26B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.13B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.82B |
| Q1 '26 | $2.46B |
| Q2 '26 | $3.63B |
| Q3 '26 | $4.12B |
February is the check
Vertiv raised its 2026 guidance to $14.45 billion to $14.85 billion in sales and closed at $232.50 on October 30, near 30 times forward earnings 12. The trade turns on one unresolved question: whether the doubled order dollars are doubled megawatts or a record-priced queue with a two-year delivery tail.
The $15.0 billion end-2025 backlog and its roughly 2.9 book-to-bill set the baseline 3; the February annual report will show whether orders kept pace. Until then the only order number investors can verify is the one management stopped publishing.
Get Data Center by email, free
Who is building AI's data centers, and who is paying for them. In our daily email, every weekday.
