Yageo fell 16 percent in five sessions despite record revenue; October 29 tests EPS of TWD 5.27
Yageo slid 16 percent in five sessions while posting record quarterly revenue, and a Taiwanese disc maker that bought TWD 360 million of its stock in September sold TWD 464 million into the slide. The October 29 report turns on EPS of TWD 5.27, not revenue.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Two identical drops into a record quarter
Yageo, the Taiwanese maker of capacitors and resistors, closed at TWD 534.00 on October 19, down 5.82 percent, its second fall of exactly that size in five sessions 18. The five-day move was minus 16.04 percent, leaving the stock 56 percent below its 52-week high of TWD 1,220 12. The same stretch delivered the strongest quarter in the company's history: revenue of TWD 49.5 billion for July through September, up 49.7 percent year on year, with September the seventh straight monthly record 1.
The bar is TWD 5.27
The report due October 29 faces a bar the revenue has already cleared 13. Consensus wants TWD 48.29 billion of quarterly sales; the quarter delivered 49.5 billion, about 2.5 percent more 13. Profit is the open question. The market expects TWD 5.27 of earnings per share, roughly 15 percent above the TWD 4.59 of the second quarter, when gross margin ran 38.5 percent, operating margin 26.4 percent and net income climbed 88.5 percent to TWD 9,418 million 13. Revenue says what shipped; the margin says who got paid.
A September buyer sold into the slide
Into that slide came a filing. CMC Magnetics, a separately listed Taiwanese optical-disc maker with TWD 1.88 billion of quarterly revenue, bought TWD 360 million of Yageo shares on September 16, then disclosed a TWD 464 million disposal on October 14 2456. Nothing in the record makes CMC part of the Yageo group; it is an outside holder, and a serial one, having put TWD 612 million into two other stakes on September 22 while selling TWD 357 million of Dynapack shares the same day 67. The sell side has not moved: 15 analysts average a TWD 1,015 target, Cathay Securities holds TWD 700, and Morgan Stanley cut to TWD 1,465 in July 239. The stock still carries 40.3 times earnings and is up 131 percent this year 28.
Every published Yageo target sits above TWD 700; the stock closed at 534
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Close, Oct 19 | TWD 534 |
| Cathay, Sep 21 | TWD 700 |
| Simply Wall St fair value, Oct 1 | TWD 1,009.33 |
| 15-analyst average, Oct 19 | TWD 1,015.33 |
| Citi, Sep 9 | TWD 1,450 |
| Morgan Stanley, Jul 23 | TWD 1,465 |
The 2018 scar against a booked-out 2027
The squeeze camp counts a real shortage: one AI rack holds 15,000 to 25,000 multilayer ceramic capacitors, Samsung Electro-Mechanics lifted prices 30 percent and is booked into 2027, and Murata, the largest capacitor maker, saw June-quarter orders jump 56.3 percent 10. The cycle camp answers with Murata's own president calling orders "a bit overheated", Shenzhen spot prices down two-thirds from their peak, and 2018, when a record year rolled into a down 2019 10. Rate worry after hot US inflation has since repriced chip capex across the board 11.
What October 29 settles
Clear TWD 5.27 with margin intact and the squeeze camp owns the tape; miss it, and the market has already drawn the 2018 chart 10. Two readings decide: Yageo's earnings per share on October 29, and Murata's July-September order book on October 30 110.
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