A third of leading US commerce sites block Meta's Muse. Googlebot walks in.
Jefferies tested Meta's Muse agent across several hundred leading US shopping and travel sites and found about a third block it outright, with new restrictions appearing almost daily. The take-rate revenue meant to justify Meta's record capex must now be negotiated door by door, and merchants dare not close the one door Google uses.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Muse, the agent Meta−1.36% — Meta, down 1.36 percent today launched on September 8, browses, books and buys online for its user, and Meta wants a take rate, a cut of each transaction 1. Downloads reached 10.9 million by October 20 1. Then Jefferies−1.84% — Jefferies, down 1.84 percent today, the investment bank, counted the doors.
The web is carding Muse at the door
Across several hundred leading US e-commerce, airline, online-travel, hotel and reservation sites, it found about one-third blocked Muse outright, one-third challenged or restricted it, and one-third worked seamlessly, with new restrictions appearing almost daily. As agentic commerce becomes an access problem, analyst Brent Thill wrote, that could "push out Meta's take-rate opportunity and strengthen Google's moat" 23.
A third of leading US commerce and travel sites block Muse outright
- Blocked outright33.333.3%
- Challenged or restricted33.333.3%
- Worked seamlessly33.433.4%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked outright | 33.3 | 33.3% |
| Challenged or restricted | 33.3 | 33.3% |
| Worked seamlessly | 33.4 | 33.4% |
Amazon−0.72% — Amazon, down 0.72 percent today blocked Muse outright in September, saying outside shopping agents should "respect service provider decisions" 4, and NBC News' own tests caught named partners turning the agent away 5. Meta's counter is sanctioned connectors with Walmart−0.92% — Walmart, down 0.92 percent today, Best Buy−0.35% — Best Buy, down 0.35 percent today, Wayfair−1.09% — Wayfair, down 1.09 percent today, Sephora and Dick's Sporting Goods, many not yet live 2.
The asymmetry matters to investors: merchants will not block Googlebot, Google's web crawler, for fear of losing search traffic, while Meta must negotiate access site by site 23. Every closed door to Muse stays open to Googlebot.
A pillar with no price list, funded anyway
Mark Zuckerberg calls the Meta Enterprise Platform "the next major pillar of our business" 6, and hired Chirantan "CJ" Desai, MongoDB's chief executive until this month, to run it 7. The September 28 launch named no products, prices or enterprise contracts 7, and Meta has quit this trade before: Workplace closed in May, Horizon Workrooms in February 7.
The spending is not waiting. Q3 capital expenditure ran $33.9 billion against $9.9 billion of net income, the second straight quarter capex outran profit 8; the full-year capex forecast rose to $135–145 billion 9, and the stock fell 6% after a solid report on spending fears 4.
Capex has outrun net income two quarters running
- Capital expenditure
- Net income
Data
| Capital expenditure | Net income | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $8.26B | $15.69B |
| Q4 '24 | $14.43B | $20.84B |
| Q1 '25 | $12.94B | $16.64B |
| Q2 '25 | $16.54B | $18.34B |
| Q3 '25 | $18.83B | $2.71B |
| Q4 '25 | $21.38B | $22.77B |
| Q1 '26 | $19B | $26.77B |
| Q2 '26 | $30.12B | $15.85B |
| Q3 '26 | $33.94B | $9.86B |
Billions pencilled in while the walls rise
Deutsche Bank's Benjamin Black puts Muse at $2.4 billion to $36 billion of revenue by 2030 10; Citi−1.57% — Citi, down 1.57 percent today says $27 billion over several years 4. Jefferies' coverage also flags Muse building dossiers on its roughly 4 million users, and their friends 2, a posture that invites more walls, and Barron's argues even an essential agent may not be profitable 11.
Advertising still carries the stock: $63.06 billion of Q3's $64.60 billion revenue 9, with ad-spend growth outpacing Google's−0.98% — Google, down 0.98 percent today in the quarter, per an expert Jefferies consulted 2.
Watch the connectors before the holidays
Watch whether Walmart and the rest go live before the holiday shopping peak, and whether the $73–76 billion Q4 revenue guide 9 arrives with a take-rate timeline attached. Until then, the second pillar is priced on Zuckerberg's word.
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