Airbnb lost the LA mayor it backed with $4.1 million; then 19% revenue growth and a $12 billion buyback

Mayor Karen Bass conceded to City Councilmember Nithya Raman on the morning of November 5, making Raman the first challenger to unseat a Los Angeles incumbent since 2005 ¹². Airbnb▲+9.48% — Airbnb, up 9.48 percent today had spent more than $4.1 million on groups supporting Bass and $2.1 million on city attorney candidate John McKinney, out of more than $12 million the company and its nonprofit put into city politics this cycle; The Inference counted $7.1 million of it before election day ¹³.

The money chased a city rule, in force since 2018, that lets only a primary residence list on a short-term rental platform ³⁴. The stalled Vacation Rental Ordinance would add as many as 15,000 second homes through the Games; Airbnb pitched it as rooms for the roughly 2 million visitors expected in 2028 and up to $110 million in bed taxes ³⁴.

Bass favored it ³⁴. Raman called the spending "pay-to-play" and vowed to stop deregulation "in ways that are harmful to renters" ³⁴.

The city attorney may cost Airbnb more than the mayor

McKinney lost too: city attorney candidate Marissa Roy led him by nearly 2 to 1 and inherits the city's lawsuit alleging price gouging during the January 2025 fires ¹². She has pledged to align with tenants' unions, and she noted in September that the city attorney "has the extraordinary power to sue any business for anything unlawful, unfair or deceptive"↗ ¹. A 2022 review found nearly half of listings on Airbnb and rival platform Vrbo out of compliance with the home-sharing ordinance, which hands her a target list ¹.

The halo went up before the vote

September brought a $250 million Housing Accelerator↗ meant to unlock about $5 billion of development over a decade ⁵. Days before the vote came a $500 million, five-year pledge to Airbnb.org↗, its nonprofit: 10 cents from every booking, shortfalls covered by the company, toward 1 million free emergency nights a year ⁶. The dimes alone would take 5 billion bookings in five years ⁶.

Chesky's framing: "I don't like this idea that somehow you create a nonprofit to make up for or apologize for your core business" ⁶. Nothing on the record shows whether any of it softens a regulator or a jury.

Shareholders funded both halves of the week

Hours after Bass conceded, Airbnb reported third-quarter revenue of $4.9 billion, up 19%↗, its fastest growth in three years, raised full-year guidance to 16-18% and added a $12 billion buyback; the stock rose about 11% in extended trading ⁷⁸. By the company's own math the city is survivable: no single city tops 1.5% of revenue, Chesky said in 2023, and Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke expects Airbnb to find other routes to Olympic supply ³.

The same shareholders funded the losing campaigns, the pledge, which Chesky called "a number shareholders can be comfortable with," and the buyback ¹⁶⁸. The enforcement turn pays Raman's renters-first agenda, Roy's tenants'-union pledge and the hotels, whose association found six in 10 hoteliers expect short-term rental growth to hurt bookings and rates ⁴.

The count to 10

"Their investments sure didn't pay off," said Mike Bonin, a former city council member who now heads the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs ¹. The next move he expects from Airbnb: "count to 10," the council votes that override a mayoral veto ¹. With Raman against loosening and the ordinance stuck in a council committee with no hearing scheduled, that count is the company's live path ¹⁴.

Jose Ugarte, leading in Council District 9 after more than $300,000 of Airbnb support, wants the company and its critics at one table first ¹. Two clocks run from here: whether 10 votes exist, and how hard Roy presses the gouging suit she inherits ¹.