Apple to block identity servers on iPhones; the FTC leashed Publicis's $2.2 billion LiveRamp purchase
Apple moved to block the identity servers behind post-cookie ID graphs, the FTC put a five-year neutrality leash on Publicis's $2.2 billion LiveRamp purchase, and Omnicom answered by binding Acxiom's identity graph to Amazon Web Services. The Q3 print due after tonight's close must show whether Omnicom owns a data business or rents one.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
The market repriced independent ad-data platforms this week, on evidence from the businesses as well as the stocks. Apple+0.86% — Apple, up 0.86 percent today published a plan to block identity-resolution servers from Apple devices starting with iOS 27; the FTC approved Publicis's $2.2 billion purchase of LiveRamp+0.07% — LiveRamp, up 0.07 percent today only with a five-year neutrality leash; and Omnicom+3.24% — Omnicom, up 3.24 percent today spent October 20 signing its Acxiom identity graph over to Amazon Web Services−5.18% — Amazon Web Services, down 5.18 percent today 123.
The Trade Desk+3.57% — The Trade Desk, up 3.57 percent today, the largest remaining neutral buying platform, closed October 16 at $12.23, 91.2% below its December 2024 high 5. That is deterioration, not just sentiment: its Q2 operating margin fell to 14.2% from 16.8% a year earlier, and it cut 15% of its staff in September 5.
Trade Desk revenue growth has slid from 28% to 3% in two years
Data
| Revenue growth, year over year | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 28.3% |
| Q2 '24 | 25.9% |
| Q3 '24 | 27.3% |
| Q4 '24 | 22.3% |
| Q1 '25 | 25.4% |
| Q2 '25 | 18.7% |
| Q3 '25 | 17.7% |
| Q4 '25 | 14.3% |
| Q1 '26 | 11.8% |
| Q2 '26 | 3% |
Safari will block the servers that post-cookie ID graphs run on
Safari will refuse to send emails and identifiers from Apple devices to third-party identity servers, and vendors cannot evade the block by reshaping the network request 2. Apple's engineers explicitly reject the first-party-scoped ID graphs the industry rebuilt itself around, because the central resolver is still a third party holding cross-site, cross-device data 2.
Some vendors, including The Trade Desk, have already spun up new domains to dodge the block; a source familiar with one vendor's strategy called the tactic "a temporary Band-Aid, not a solution," and AdExchanger itself describes "a losing game of cat and mouse" 2. Any identity graph fed by web signals therefore shrinks on hundreds of millions of Apple devices.
The regulator now prices neutrality as a cost
Publicis gets LiveRamp, but must guarantee neutral access, firewall competitors' data, submit to an independent auditor and let customers request audits, for five years after closing 1. Omnicom's IPG merger last summer came with a different condition, not denying ad dollars to publishers over political viewpoint, and no auditor 1. The conditions make proving neutrality a recurring cost the market now builds into what a neutral data layer is worth.
Omnicom keeps the customer signal but runs it on Amazon's rails
Credera, Omnicom's transformation consultancy, signed a five-year agreement with AWS on October 20: a dedicated AWS business unit, 3,000 consultants getting certified, 12 to 15 AWS Marketplace listings, and Acxiom's Real ID graph, a 2.6-billion-profile identity database, activated through AWS Clean Rooms and Amazon Marketing Cloud 3.
The consequence is specific: Omnicom will still own the customer relationships and the data, but the infrastructure that matches data to ad outcomes will run inside the cloud of a company that also sells advertising. Publicis bought its data layer outright and accepted an auditor; Omnicom pays in consultants and a five-year commitment to a rival platform.
Tonight's print must split data revenue from billable hours
Omnicom reports Q3 after the NYSE close today: consensus revenue of $6.21 billion against $6.56 billion in Q2, earnings per share of $2.63 to $2.67, with eleven analysts at Hold and a $98.75 average target on a stock that closed Tuesday at $80.92 46. The reported growth since the IPG merger closed is acquired, not organic.
Reported revenue jumped from $4.0B to $6.6B on the IPG merger
- Revenue, reported
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue, reported | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $3.58 B |
| Q4 '23 | $4.06 B |
| Q1 '24 | $3.63 B |
| Q2 '24 | $3.85 B |
| Q3 '24 | $3.88 B |
| Q4 '24 | $4.32 B |
| Q1 '25 | $3.69 B |
| Q2 '25 | $4.02 B |
| Q3 '25 | $4.04 B |
| Q4 '25 | $5.53 B |
| Q1 '26 | $6.24 B |
| Q2 '26 | $6.56 B |
| Q3 '26E (estimate) | $6.21 B |
Organic growth strips out the acquired IPG revenue, so any growth that remains is what Omnicom's own data and services earn on their own. The number to watch tonight is organic revenue growth excluding IPG, plus Credera pipeline commentary on the 4:30 p.m 4. EDT call 4. If the data business is earning more than rent on rails AWS controls, it will show up there first.
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