Arm reports November 4 with a $2 verdict and a clause that could erase five years of Qualcomm royalties

An 11.6% session set the table

Arm▼−9.44% — Arm, down 9.44 percent today Holdings (Nasdaq: ARM), the SoftBank-linked chip designer whose blueprints run in more than 99% of smartphones, reports fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday, November 4, after the US close ⁵⁸. On October 30 the stock lost 11.60% in one session against a 5.42% sector decline↗, with Intel▼−29.36% — Intel, down 29.36 percent today down 30.32% in a rate-driven tech rout ¹. TradingKey named the Qualcomm▼−10.68% — Qualcomm, down 10.68 percent today licensing dispute among the drivers, alongside a trailing price-to-earnings multiple above 200x ¹.

The $1.38 billion bar and the $2 billion order book

Management guided revenue to $1.38 billion, plus or minus $50 million, adjusted earnings to $0.47 a share↗, and royalty revenue to low-teens growth ². The June quarter before it brought $1.289 billion, up 22.4% year over year, with data-center royalty revenue more than doubling ²⁹.

Beyond royalties sits the Arm AGI CPU, a 136-core data-center chip launched in March with Meta▼−1.65% — Meta, down 1.65 percent today as lead partner ⁵. Demand tops $2 billion; secured manufacturing capacity covers about $1 billion of revenue across fiscal 2027 and 2028 ²⁷. Chief Executive Rene Haas called the market for memory, test equipment, substrates and TSMC▼−5.31% — TSMC, down 5.31 percent today wafers "very tight" ², and first shipments are slated for the end of calendar 2026 ⁷.

Two dollars, with a $1.5 billion clause behind it

On October 13 a Delaware jury found Arm breached its architecture license with Qualcomm↗, withheld certification tools, and intentionally interfered with Qualcomm's dealings with Meta: one dollar per claim, two dollars total ⁴⁵⁶.

The jury rejected Qualcomm's pricing claims ⁴⁵. The money now sits with Judge Maryellen Noreika. Section 8.3 of the license can cut royalty rates to zero for five years if a breach goes uncured↗ ⁶; Qualcomm pays Arm roughly $300 million a year, near 9% of Arm's $4.92 billion fiscal-2026 revenue, so the clause is worth about $1.5 billion ⁵. Closing arguments ran on October 20 and no ruling date is set ⁵⁶.

The jury priced the breach at two dollars; the clause behind it can erase five years of royalties.

What the call answers, and what it cannot

Arm's counter reads well: four of six claims won, a $2 award the company says confirms good faith, and a Moderate Buy consensus at $303.32, with Bank of America▼−2.19% — Bank of America, down 2.19 percent today at $335 and Wells Fargo▼−1.78% — Wells Fargo, down 1.78 percent today at $280, against a $205.97 Nasdaq quote ³⁵⁸. At more than 200x trailing earnings, though, the courtroom tail is barely discounted ¹.

The tail sits with Arm shareholders; a suspension would bank roughly $1.5 billion with Qualcomm. The November 4 call answers the royalty line and the AGI CPU schedule. The five-year clause answers to Judge Noreika alone, on no stated clock.