ASMPT booked a record $1.1 billion in orders but guided flat Q4 equipment revenue; the stock fell 11%
ASMPT's bookings doubled to $1.1 billion, yet the shares fell 11 percent when the board kept the business, because the company itself says the machines will not ship faster next quarter. Across Arrow, Arteris and ASM International, the AI supply chain is accumulating orders and inventory faster than cash.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
ASMPT−7.03% — ASMPT, down 7.03 percent today just booked more business in three months than it has ever booked, and its own stock went down. The Hong Kong-listed equipment maker, which sells the machines that stack chips and stuff circuit boards for AI servers, reported record third-quarter bookings of $1.1 billion, up 137.9 percent year over year 1. On November 4, its board kept the fast-growing SMT Solutions unit instead of selling it, and the shares fell 11 percent 2.
The orders are real; the revenue is later
Revenue was $669.2 million, up 48.7 percent, strong but far behind the order book 1. ASMPT itself guided fourth-quarter semiconductor-equipment revenue roughly flat, because advanced-packaging machines take longer to build and ship 1. SMT Solutions notched a third straight record bookings quarter, up 122.1 percent, with more than $100 million in bulk orders 1. SEMI bookings rose 156.3 percent on record orders for thermo-compression bonding, the tool that stacks chips onto substrates in AI data centers 1.
Bookings grew more than twice as fast as revenue at ASMPT
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| SEMI bookings | 156.3 |
| Total bookings | 137.9 |
| SMT bookings | 122.1 |
| Revenue | 48.7 |
The whole chain is holding inventory, not cash
The pattern repeats downstream. Arrow Electronics+2.29% — Arrow Electronics, up 2.29 percent today posted record $10.7 billion revenue on November 5, but grew inventory $1.4 billion, about $600 million of it data-center racks that did not ship, and used $441 million of operating cash 4. Arteris+6.21% — Arteris, up 6.21 percent today, the chip-interconnect IP firm, raised full-year revenue guidance to $98.5 million to $99.5 million while guiding its exit backlog flat at $103 million to $107 million 5.
Upstream, ASM International targets more than 5.7 billion euros of 2027 revenue, yet its CEO says supplier pressure can limit deliveries and its CFO distinguishes visibility from booked orders 6. Orders are piling up faster than anyone can ship.
The market voted before the machines shipped
Investors are repricing that gap. On November 6, SK Hynix+1.22% — SK Hynix, up 1.22 percent today fell 10.44 percent, Samsung 6.35 percent and TSMC+5.16% — TSMC, up 5.16 percent today 4.69 percent, after the Nasdaq's 5.5 percent drop put the index more than 10 percent below its peak 7. BlackRock+1.11% — BlackRock, up 1.11 percent today cut its ASMPT long position to 6.73 percent from 7.39 percent in an HKEX filing 3. The order book is the wrong number to own if the shipping line stays flat; the next reading is ASMPT's fourth quarter, guided $670 million to $730 million 1.
The sell-off hit the AI chip stocks hardest
Data
| One-day move, November 6 | |
|---|---|
| SK Hynix | -10.44% |
| Samsung | -6.35% |
| Nasdaq | -5.5% |
| TSMC | -4.69% |
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