AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile ask the FCC to cut 290 MHz from SpaceX's satellite plan before the October 29 vote
The FCC votes October 29 on opening 482 MHz of carrier spectrum to satellite-to-phone service, and AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon want 290 MHz of it stripped before SpaceX can use it. The trade is priced off a draft that has not passed.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The vote is five days out. On October 29 the Federal Communications Commission decides whether to open 482 megahertz of carrier spectrum to satellite-to-phone service, growing the eligible bands from five to thirteen 13. On October 22, AT&T−7.83% — AT&T, down 7.83 percent today, Verizon−1.44% — Verizon, down 1.44 percent today and T-Mobile answered through their trade group CTIA: strip out the 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz bands, 290 MHz of the 482, before the draft comes to a vote. 13
Carriers want their workhorse bands left alone
The ask is not subtle. Those two bands carry time-division 5G, where phones and towers share the same frequencies in tight sequence, and CTIA says more than 300 million users depend on them 23. T-Mobile−7.58% — T-Mobile, down 7.58 percent today sits in 2.5 GHz, AT&T in 3.45 GHz; the filing calls the satellite plan "technically unworkable 23." CTIA, run by former FCC chairman Ajit Pai, met Chairman Carr's office on October 20, and Pai filed separately asking the FCC to keep satellites out of the "workhorse" bands. 23
The second ask cuts closer to the money: keep satellite use of carrier spectrum on carrier-consented leases, with carriers keeping consent, control and termination rights. The draft would swap that lease requirement for coexistence agreements. 12
The market is pricing a carrier that does not exist yet
Because SpaceX+1.86% — SpaceX, up 1.86 percent today is assembling a fourth carrier: an $8 billion deal for Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz agreed October 9 (the day AT&T fell 9.81% and Verizon had its worst session since 2002), FCC approval of the Tristar AWS−0.72% — AWS, down 0.72 percent today-3 purchase and 15,000 direct-to-cell satellites, and reported talks for 80,000 cell sites, about half the purpose-built towers in America 1345. On October 23, AT&T slid 7.96%, T-Mobile 7.71%, while tower owner Crown Castle+10.10% — Crown Castle, up 10.10 percent today jumped 9.06%. 1345
Carrier stocks fell twice in two weeks as the Starlink threat firmed
- Oct 23
- Oct 9
Data
| Oct 23 | Oct 9 | |
|---|---|---|
| AT&T | -7.96% | -9.81% |
| T-Mobile | -7.71% | — |
| Crown Castle | 9.06% | — |
| Verizon | — | — |
The market is pricing an unsigned threat. AT&T's 2026 EPS estimate rose to $2.40 from $2.34 after earnings, yet its forward multiple fell from 9.70x to 8.96x 5. Earnings up, valuation down: investors are discounting competition that has not signed a lease. 5
The counterpoint is CEO John Stankey's: AT&T runs six to eight carriers of low-band spectrum in a typical metro, and a rival network is not built overnight. Fair, and the first real check arrives before the FCC even votes, with Verizon's postpaid churn on October 26. 5
The contested 290 MHz is most of the 482 MHz menu the FCC would hand satellites
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| SpaceX holdings | 80 |
| Bands carriers want stripped | 290 |
| Total FCC draft opens | 482 |
If the FCC drops the 290 MHz on October 29, Starlink Mobile loses its most usable mid-band path and part of the selloff unwinds. If the draft passes whole, SpaceX gets a 482 MHz menu and the fight moves from the docket to churn. Watch the vote, then the leases.
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