Check Point launches a 12.8-terabit AI firewall; Monday's report is seen as its first revenue drop
The firewall incumbent quadrupled its data-center inspection capacity for AI traffic on October 29. Monday's third-quarter report, which analysts expect to show the first year-over-year revenue decline in at least three years, is the first test of whether the AI-security boom reaches it.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Four times the inspection, same 1RU chassis
On October 29, Check Point Software+0.10% — Check Point Software, up 0.10 percent today (Nasdaq: CHKP), the Israeli-founded firewall maker that says it protects more than 100,000 organizations, launched the Maestro Hyperscale Orchestrator MHO 200, an appliance for neoclouds (cloud providers that rent out GPU capacity for AI workloads), telecom carriers, governments and enterprises to inspect the largely encrypted traffic AI systems move through data centers 1.
Fabric capacity rises to 12.8 terabits per second, from 3.2 on the prior model, and threat-prevention throughput quadruples to 4.5 Tbps, with new 400-gigabit Ethernet ports in the same 1RU chassis 1. Three days earlier came Firewall-as-a-Subscription, three-year contracts that replace upfront hardware purchases, available from November 1 2.
Rivals are priced for a boom
CrowdStrike−4.08% — CrowdStrike, down 4.08 percent today trades at $261.83, up 123% this year, at 189 times forward earnings and above the $247.25 average target of its 53 covering analysts 3. Netskope's−7.41% — Netskope, down 7.41 percent today annual recurring revenue climbed 27% to $899 million and eight analysts raised targets the next day, negative $29.8 million of quarterly free cash notwithstanding 4.
Check Point's filings tell the opposite story: second-quarter revenue of $673.6 million grew 1.3% from a year earlier 58, analysts forecast 5.3% annual growth over three years against 12% for US software 5, and the stock closed October 30 at $152.11, down 18% for the year and 1.8% above the $149.44 average target of 38 analysts 6.
Revenue growth has slipped every quarter since September 2025
- Revenue growth, % YoY
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue growth, % YoY | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | 6.5% |
| Q4 '24 | 6.1% |
| Q1 '25 | 6.5% |
| Q2 '25 | 6% |
| Q3 '25 | 6.7% |
| Q4 '25 | 5.9% |
| Q1 '26 | 4.8% |
| Q2 '26 | 1.3% |
| Q3 '26E (estimate) | -0.7% |
The bull case is real, but small
Gartner+1.66% — Gartner, up 1.66 percent today named Check Point a Leader in hybrid mesh firewalls on September 10, and the company claims the industry's first AI network firewall, shipped in July 9. Miercom has ranked it first in security effectiveness four years running 1.
The newer businesses, SASE, exposure management and AI security, are growing annual recurring revenue above 40% by one market-analytics tally, still too small to move a company that booked $2.76 billion over the past four quarters 810. Bears answer that consolidated platforms keep pressing prices: Wedbush cut the stock to Neutral in September, while UBS lifted its target to $145 on October 15 56.
Monday is the first count
Results arrive before the US open on Monday, November 2 6. The Zacks consensus expects $672.51 million of revenue, down 0.7%, and $2.49 of earnings per share, down 36.8%, a comparison inflated by the 73% jump in third-quarter 2025 net income 78. The tell is guidance: whether MHO 200 and the subscription firewall appear anywhere in the fourth-quarter outlook 78. CrowdStrike is priced as though agent-era security already arrived; Check Point is priced as though it never reaches the revenue line.
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