Fair Isaac pulled 2027 guidance, and six banks cut price targets from $650 to $925
Fair Isaac's fiscal Q4 showed pure pricing power: mortgage score revenue rose 72% while loan volumes fell. Then it refused to guide fiscal 2027 as it moves to lender-by-lender pricing, and banks answered with targets from $650 to $925.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
After the close on November 4, Fair Isaac−3.85% — Fair Isaac, down 3.85 percent today (NYSE: FICO), the company behind the credit score nearly every US mortgage lender pulls, reported a quarter built almost entirely on price, then said it could not describe next year 12. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was $657.0 million, up 27% from $515.8 million a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $11.10 beat the $10.98 consensus 12. GAAP net income of $175.0 million absorbed a $65 million accrual toward settling antitrust class actions over the Scores business, plus a $27 million restructuring charge 2.
Price built the quarter
Scores revenue rose 33% to $413.8 million, and business-to-business Scores revenue rose 39%, which the company attributes primarily to a higher mortgage origination scores unit price, partly offset by lower originations volume 2. Mortgage-originations revenue climbed about 72% while volumes slipped high single digits 3. Traffic fell; the toll rose. Nine quarters of revenue show the step: roughly $515 million a quarter before the repricing, roughly $675 million after 102.
Revenue stepped up by a third once FICO repriced its mortgage score
A ~$515M quarterly run-rate became ~$675M after mortgage scores were repriced
Data
| Quarterly revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $453.81M |
| Q4 '24 | $439.97M |
| Q1 '25 | $498.74M |
| Q2 '25 | $536.42M |
| Q3 '25 | $515.75M |
| Q4 '25 | $511.96M |
| Q1 '26 | $691.68M |
| Q2 '26 | $674.19M |
| Q3 '26 | $657.05M |
The price list goes private
FICO is dropping its published flat fee for pricing tailored to each customer 4, and the release is blunt: with programs and agreements still being finalized, "we are not providing fiscal year 2027 guidance at this time" 2. The backdrop explains the hurry.
On September 28 the Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, put the rival VantageScore 4.0 on the same mortgage pricing table as Classic FICO; the stock fell 26.5% the next day, and October brought a 15% workforce cut 6. TransUnion−2.53% — TransUnion, down 2.53 percent today, VantageScore's co-owner, is holding that score at $0.99 through December 2028 6.
FICO's counter is the Preferred Program, a held $10 wholesale price, and no 2027 increase, for lenders that commit; Guild, PennyMac, LoanDepot and DHI Mortgage have signed 56.
The debt under the toll
The leverage sits on FICO's own balance sheet: $4.92 billion of long-term debt, up from $2.66 billion a year earlier, against $217.6 million of cash and a $3.87 billion stockholders' deficit 2. Fiscal 2026 produced $1.03 billion of free cash flow and $3.05 billion of buybacks, funded with borrowing; the buybacks are now paused, with net leverage at 3.29 times EBITDA 26.
Six banks, six verdicts
RBC Capital downgraded the stock to Sector Perform and cut its target from $1,045 to $770 7. Wells Fargo−0.81% — Wells Fargo, down 0.81 percent today went to $650 8; JPMorgan to $800, with Barclays−1.67% — Barclays, down 1.67 percent today at $800 and Needham at $925 9.
One earnings report, a $275 spread of price targets
Three cuts in one day; targets span $650 to $925
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | $650 |
| RBC Capital | $770 |
| JPMorgan | $800 |
| Barclays | $800 |
| Needham | $925 |
| Jefferies | $925 |
The tape disagreed: shares fell about 7% after hours on the report 6, then closed November 5 up 0.9% at $707.40 3. January decides it, when lenders pick a pricing path and FICO either restores guidance or does not 6. You cannot model a toll road that sets its tolls in private.
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