FEMA opened $250 million more for counter-drone gear; Ondas is 45.5% short and sells it
The Federal Emergency Management Agency just extended $500 million of counter-drone money to all 50 states, and Ondas Holdings, the most shorted US tech stock above $2 billion at 45.5% of shares outstanding, sells the gear the buyers want. The first allocations and a November 12 earnings report decide whether the crowded short funds a squeeze or AeroVironment's $1.5 billion backlog takes the money.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has opened the second half of a $500 million counter-drone commitment to every state: the first $250 million was earmarked for jurisdictions hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup and America 250 (the United States' 250th anniversary) celebrations, and the second $250 million extends eligibility to all 50 states, five territories and Washington, DC, with the 2028 Summer Olympics prioritized 1.
The buyers are state, local, tribal and territorial agencies, and the shopping list is drone detection, tracking, identification and mitigation for airports, stadiums, government facilities and critical infrastructure 1.
Ondas Holdings−8.55% — Ondas Holdings, down 8.55 percent today (ONDS) sells exactly that. Its Sentrycs Cyber-over-RF technology identifies and mitigates compatible unauthorized drones without jamming, its US-made Dronebuster handheld and vehicle-mounted kits are field-proven with more than 3,000 units delivered in over 50 countries, and its DefenseOS platform ties detection and response into one command layer 3. That same technology protected a majority of North American World Cup host stadiums and was selected for Jacksonville Jaguars games 3.
The most crowded short in tech meets fresh federal money
Two facts have not met in print until now. Ondas is the most shorted US technology stock above $2 billion in market value: 45.50% of shares outstanding sold short at the end of October, ahead of MARA Holdings−4.89% — MARA Holdings, down 4.89 percent today at 28.98% and TeraWulf−5.79% — TeraWulf, down 5.79 percent today at 25.68%, against 0.58% for the least shorted, Ubiquiti (the same Seeking Alpha item cites 44.50% in its text, a snapshot discrepancy within one source) 2.
Ondas' short interest is 16.5 points above the next most shorted tech name
Ondas is tech's most shorted stock above $2 billion, by 16.5 points
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Ondas (ONDS) | 45.5% |
| MARA Holdings | 28.98% |
| TeraWulf | 25.68% |
| Core Scientific | 23.85% |
| Enphase Energy | 22.23% |
The shorts have been paid lately. The shares lost 22.5% in the past month against an 18.4% industry decline 1, and on October 30, the day the FEMA news landed, ONDS closed down 6.77% as investors weighed share dilution and the short interest ahead of third-quarter earnings 4; 24/7 Wall St put the same day's slide at 9%, an intraday snapshot of the same selloff 5.
Orders keep landing, revenue has to prove it
The shorts' case rests on the gap between bookings and reported revenue. Ondas has reported more than $165 million in new orders since August and over $270 million since June 7, which The Inference examined on October 10 as a quarter it has never had to match. Since then the news is the FEMA nationwide extension and the short-interest crown, and the burden is unchanged: second-quarter revenue was $84 million with an operating margin of negative 171.6%, so revenue is ramping off a small base while losses stay heavy 8.
Ondas' Sentrycs unit has also priced its Ranger portable counter-drone system at a fixed $99,000 with three years of maintenance, a package built so a procurement officer can drop it into a FEMA grant application; the price converts to revenue only when the orders do 7.
Ondas revenue has grown off a near-zero base for eight straight quarters
Revenue is ramping fast, but the base the shorts question is small
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $1M |
| Q4 '24 | $4M |
| Q1 '25 | $4M |
| Q2 '25 | $6M |
| Q3 '25 | $10M |
| Q4 '25 | $30M |
| Q1 '26 | $50M |
| Q2 '26 | $84M |
The funded incumbent waits at AeroVironment
AeroVironment (AVAV) is the counterpoint. It holds a record $1.5 billion funded backlog, a $465 million Army award for its LOCUST laser weapon and a $500 million indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract, a framework agreement that lets agencies order as needed, for its Titan counter-drone platform 1. It also guided to positive GAAP earnings by fiscal 2027, and that profile buffered it in the same October 30 selloff: its 6% fall was the smallest of the drone group while Ondas dropped 9% 5.
AeroVironment fell least in the drone selloff that hit Ondas
Data
| One-day decline | |
|---|---|
| Unusual Machines | 12% |
| Red Cat | 10% |
| Ondas | 9% |
| AeroVironment | 6% |
The timeline now decides it. Ondas joins a counter-drone forum for grant-seeking agencies on November 9 3, first FEMA allocation announcements to World Cup jurisdictions are the trigger, and third-quarter results on November 12 are the proof point 57. If the first tranche converts into state and local orders, 45.5% short interest funds a squeeze 357. If the grants trickle the way federal procurement money historically has, the backlog holder takes the scaled share.
Deep dive into the filings and numbers below before the November 12 print.
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