Fluence Energy lands Vattenfall's 254 MW battery order as UBS halves its target to $6
The Swedish utility Vattenfall has taken the final investment decision on the 254 MW Brunsbüttel battery, its biggest yet, but Fluence's own guidance already carries a $200 million loss from US factory delays, and UBS reckons the bill runs $190 million deeper.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Fluence Energy−6.56% — Fluence Energy, down 6.56 percent today (Nasdaq: FLNC) ended last week with both halves of its story landing together. On Thursday the Swedish utility Vattenfall took the final investment decision on the Brunsbüttel battery in northern Germany: 254 megawatts of power, 1,070 megawatt-hours of storage, Fluence as supplier, running by the end of 2028 23. The Monday before, UBS had halved its price target on the grid-battery integrator to $6 from $12, on the cost of delayed American production 15.
The order is real, and so is the hole
The October 14 award is Vattenfall's largest battery project to date and will nearly double its storage fleet 7. Fluence delivers it turnkey, engineering through long-term service, on the site of a nuclear plant being decommissioned 7. The money question sits elsewhere. On September 16, Fluence cut guidance for fiscal 2026, the year ended September 30, to about $2.4 billion of revenue and a $200 million adjusted-EBITDA loss, blaming the slow ramp of its Houston contract plant 4. In November 2025 the same guidance carried a $50 million profit at its midpoint 69.
Fluence's own FY2026 EBITDA guide fell from a $50M profit to a $200M loss
- FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint
- Estimate
Data
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint | |
|---|---|
| Nov 2025 guide (estimate) | $50M ($40–60M) |
| Aug 2026 revision (estimate) | -$10M (-$30–10M) |
| 16 Sept 2026 cut (estimate) | -$200M |
About $400 million of projects slid into fiscal 2027, and the June quarter's adjusted gross margin fell to 5.9% from 15.4%, even as backlog climbed to a record $6.4 billion from $5.3 billion 69. Backlog becomes revenue only when projects ship, and shipping is what Houston is late delivering 4.
One target halved, three cut hard
Citigroup went to $11 from $20 on October 21 and kept its Buy; Morgan Stanley+1.87% — Morgan Stanley, up 1.87 percent today and the brokerage Susquehanna cut to $9 and $13 on the day of the award 18. UBS alone priced the next leg: roughly $190 million of extra fiscal 2026 cost, with the drag running into fiscal 2027 and 2028 5. That figure is UBS's estimate, not a company disclosure 1. If it lands on top of the guided loss, fiscal 2026 finishes near a $390 million hole 45.
Four banks cut their Fluence targets by 40 to 50 percent in twelve days
- Old target
- New target
Data
| Old target | New target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBS (Neutral) | $12 | $6 | -50.0% |
| Citi (Buy) | $20 | $11 | -45.0% |
| Morgan Stanley (Equal-weight) | $15 | $9 | -40.0% |
| Susquehanna (Positive) | $23 | $13 | -43.5% |
Shareholders have carried the damage: the stock fell 34.6% on February 5 to $18.95 and 15.4% on September 17 to $7.66, then lost 3.4% on the Friday after the investment decision 61. The turnkey scope puts execution costs on Fluence's side of the contract 7. No filing or analyst note in this record names a competitor collecting the late deliveries, so the cost has landed on one side: FLNC holders.
The next filing tests the $190 million
A securities class action covering buyers from November 24, 2025, to September 16, 2026, alleges Fluence overstated its contract-manufacturing readiness at sites including Houston; the claims remain unproven 6. The shareholder-rights law firm Levi & Korsinsky sets lead-plaintiff motions for November 27, a rival firm, Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter, for November 30 61.
The sterner test is the fiscal 2026 report 4. Fluence has promised a detailed fiscal 2027 business plan and financial update with those results, targeting neutral-to-positive operating cash flow without new capital, and says corrective actions at the contract manufacturer have already lifted daily output 4. Last year's annual filing landed November 25 4. That plan, set against UBS's $190 million, is the line to watch 4.
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