Goldman's $80m handcuffs now hold the heir, not the handover
Goldman priced its succession in a January 2025 filing: identical $80m retention awards for chief executive David Solomon and heir John Waldron, vesting in 2030. A reported stall in the handover, which Goldman disputes on the record, leaves the same handcuffs holding the heir with no timetable attached.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
Eight years a heartbeat, two calls declined
John Waldron has been Goldman Sachs's number two since October 2018, running the bank's main divisions while David Solomon holds the top job 12. Shareholders at $916 a share carry the continuity risk of the wait 3.
The phone has rung twice. Carlyle sounded him out about its chief executive seat in 2022, a job that went to former Goldman president Harvey Schwartz; Apollo offered him a senior role in 2024 and he declined 12. Both times he stayed, on the strength of a promise the board put in writing.
What $80m apiece was supposed to buy
The writing was a Form 8-K filed 17 January 2025 4. On 16 January each man received 130,508 restricted stock units, $80m at grant, vesting in a single cliff in January 2030 and only with continuous service 4.
The stated purpose: "stability and continuity in our senior leadership over the next five years" and "a strong succession plan for the future of the firm" 4. A board seat for Waldron followed in February 1. The Inference priced this filing on 1 October: $80m to hold the heir, records to hold the incumbent.
The blueprint, then the stall
On 28 September the Wall Street Journal reported the board's blueprint: Waldron chief executive by late 2027 or during 2028, Solomon executive chairman for a year or two 5. Board approval could come within months, the paper said, on timing it called fluid 56.
On 2 October came the sequel: the handoff has stalled, the Journal reported, because Solomon told senior executives he plans to remain 1. Goldman's global head of communications, Tony Fratto, disputes the framing on the record: Solomon "has never indicated a timeline for his departure," and timing claims are "just speculation" 12.
The structure is the story. The grants keep both men in the building until 2030 whichever one holds the title 4. They bought retention, not a handover date; the incumbent keeps the record and the keys.
The record run that argues for the incumbent
Solomon's case is the income statement. Full-year 2024 net earnings ran to $14.28bn on $53.51bn of revenue 4. The curve has steepened since: equities revenue hit a record in the second quarter of 2026 as a deals rebound powered in part by the AI boom filled the fee pool 27.
Net earnings of $6.63bn were the bank's biggest of the twelve quarters charted below 8. Goldman advised on more than $1tn of mergers in the first half 79. Waldron's own portfolio is the internal AI push credited in the 2026 proxy: "digital agents will be our robots" 9.
Goldman's biggest quarter in three years landed in the middle of its succession fight
Data
| Net income | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $2.06B |
| Q4 '23 | $2.01B |
| Q1 '24 | $4.13B |
| Q2 '24 | $3.04B |
| Q3 '24 | $2.99B |
| Q4 '24 | $4.11B |
| Q1 '25 | $4.74B |
| Q2 '25 | $3.72B |
| Q3 '25 | $4.1B |
| Q4 '25 | $4.62B |
| Q1 '26 | $5.63B |
| Q2 '26 | $6.63B |
Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo counts the stock up more than 300% under Solomon, second only to Jamie Dimon against the bank index 7. The shares have more than quadrupled since October 2018, against 67% for the bank stock index 5.
No timeline, say the bank and the analyst
The other side deserves its weight. No filing commits Solomon to a date, and Fratto's denial is Goldman's official position 24. Solomon, 64 until January, said in July: "At some point in time, there'll be a transition, but it's not now" 3. Mayo reads the board as behind him "for at least the medium term" 1. The dispute does not resolve the bind; it is the bind.
A chief executive printing record quarters has little incentive to name a date and turn lame duck, as governance professor Charles Elson notes 7. The heir's posture is, in Elson's image, "Prince Charles waiting for his mother to die" 7.
The clock is the early-2027 proxy
The next checkpoint is the proxy filing due in early 2027, where the board either formalizes a transition or keeps booking the risk of an heir who has already answered two headhunters 1. Below Waldron sit four executives Mayo says the bank cannot afford to alienate 9. Finance chief Denis Coleman has spent the past year absorbing Waldron's operating duties, including the AI program Goldman calls OneGS 3.0 56.
There is precedent for what waiting does. Waldron first explored exits, the Journal reported, after Solomon made clear to top Goldman executives that he was not going anywhere for years 5. The awards vest in January 2030 4. The heir's patience gets read out far sooner.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
