Hedge funds sold IREN as AI exposure; $4 billion of contracts must convert on November 5
The funds that bought bitcoin miners as AI exposure sold them as AI exposure in October, Goldman Sachs prime-brokerage data show. IREN reports fiscal first-quarter results on November 5, with consensus at $221.71 million of revenue and a $0.76 loss per share, and the print decides whether $4 billion of contracted capacity is converting or stalling.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
IREN−4.36% — IREN, down 4.36 percent today built its fortune mining bitcoin. In its June quarter, AI cloud revenue of $70.5 million passed bitcoin mining revenue of $66.7 million for the first time 1. The market repriced the stock as AI infrastructure, and October showed what that label costs.
The sellers were the buyers
Goldman Sachs+1.65% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.65 percent today prime-brokerage data show hedge funds sold AI stocks in five straight sessions from October 8 to 14, roughly $20 billion of tech stock over two weeks, at 3.5 times the pace of new short bets, erasing every net AI purchase funds had made since early 2025 1. Between the September 30 and October 30 closes, IREN fell 41.4%, Cipher Digital−5.49% — Cipher Digital, down 5.49 percent today 53.9%, MARA 40.2% and Riot 36.4%, while bitcoin tracked by BlackRock's+2.27% — BlackRock, up 2.27 percent today IBIT fell just 8.4% 1.
Price change, September 30 to October 30 closes, %
Data
| Sept 30 to Oct 30 close, % | |
|---|---|
| Cipher | -53.9% |
| IREN | -41.4% |
| MARA | -40.2% |
| Riot | -36.4% |
| Coinbase | -23% |
| Strategy | -14.7% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -8.4% |
The week the funds sold, the split was starker. From October 7 to 14, IREN dropped 21.0% and Cipher 31.7%, against 9.6% for the chip index SMH, the VanEck semiconductor ETF, and 2.1% for bitcoin 1. Every miner fell harder than the chipmakers. The funds that bought the miners as AI exposure sold them as AI exposure. Rich Privorotsky, who runs Goldman's Delta-One desk, gave the reason: computing demand "can grow exponentially, but the capital available to finance it cannot" 1.
Miners fell hardest in the week the funds sold
Data
| Oct 7 to 14, % | |
|---|---|
| IREN | -21% |
| Cipher | -31.7% |
| SMH chips | -9.6% |
| Bitcoin | -2.1% |
What the lenders see that the funds do not
The stock hit a 52-week low of $23.06 on Friday before closing at $23.95 12. As our October 28 piece reported, IREN had that week closed a $363 million equipment financing arranged by Wingspire, the equipment-lending arm of Blue Owl+4.02% — Blue Owl, up 4.02 percent today-backed Wingspire Capital, with private credit firms Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital anchoring a six-lender group, secured against GPU servers already deployed and earning; the rate and term were not disclosed 34.
Against that sits the pipeline, reported in our October 3 and October 28 pieces: $4 billion of annualized contracted 2026 capacity versus $1 billion in operation, a figure the company itself ties to commissioning, testing and customer acceptance 4. The gap is the bet.
The number that decides it
Fiscal first-quarter results land November 5 2. Consensus looks for $221.71 million of revenue and a $0.76 loss per share 2. B. Riley cut its price target to $64 from $91 while keeping Buy, arguing investors assign little value to the development pipeline and that construction financing is temporary funding, not a permanent debt burden 2.
Consensus sees revenue rebounding 62% in the quarter the funds sold
- Quarterly revenue, $M
- Estimate
Data
| Quarterly revenue, $M | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $36.49M |
| Q4 '24 | $116.14M |
| Q1 '25 | $144.82M |
| Q2 '25 | $187.29M |
| Q3 '25 | $240.3M |
| Q4 '25 | $184.69M |
| Q1 '26 | $144.79M |
| Q2 '26 | $137.23M |
| Q3 '26 (cons.) (estimate) | $221.71M |
What no source yet settles: whether the Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B cloud deal The Information reported is real 3, and whether the $4 billion of contracts converts on schedule. The November 5 revenue line answers the first question of both: revenue landing against contracted capacity confirms the lenders' case, a miss confirms the sellers' 3. Watch Thursday.
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