Indiana regulators approved AES's $1.3 billion Google data center plan; AES trades 0.67% under its $15 buyout

The vote took place on October 7: the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, unanimously, approved AES Indiana's plan to power Google's 390-megawatt data center campus near Monrovia↗ ¹. Every big number in the order runs the same direction. AES▼−0.04% — AES, down 0.04 percent today puts the total cost at $1.3 billion, with Google funding 100 percent of the energy, generation, transmission and infrastructure costs, against the 80 percent Indiana law demands of large loads ¹. The utility says other customers come out $770 million ahead over 15 years, more than $700 for the average household, about $47 a year ¹. The comparison point is concrete: NiSource's NIPSCO Generation, the Indiana blueprint regulators and analysts keep pointing to, ring-fences its Amazon and Google contracts for about $1.4 billion of customer savings over 15 years↗ ³.

The ruling reads like it was written for November

That precision is the tell. Commissioner Joby Jarrells spelled it out in the order: "This is above and beyond the requirement. This satisfies the requirement and is substantially consistent with President Trump's Ratepayer Protection Pledge. This is why I will be voting to approve the Order." ¹ Governor Mike Braun demoted then fired IURC Chairman Andy Zay after the commission approved a $71 million AES Indiana rate increase he opposed; Zay sued, and settled with the state for $625,000 in August ³. The same month, Governor Abigail Spanberger intervened in Dominion's $67.4 billion sale, and the utilities trade group says data centers have "shifted more quickly than almost any issue" in politics ³. With 36 states electing governors on affordability, AES sent customers an email the same day as the ruling↗: "Google will pay 100% of the costs. AES Indiana won't pay for the power plants, substations, transmission lines" ⁶.

The math underneath is not settled

Five lawmakers led by Senator Elizabeth Warren asked FERC on September 28 to reject the $33.4 billion AES buyout↗ over its return math: buyers who underwrite at 15 to 20 percent purchased a business that historically earns 10 ⁴. Their failure case: "if a data center fails, customers may continue paying for the unnecessary upgrades via increased utility bills" ⁴ — and the 390-megawatt campus, $1.3 billion of plants, substations and transmission, is exactly the upgrade class they mean. AES has spent more on plant than operations generated in all ten quarters through June 2026↗, including $1.64 billion of capex against $1.05 billion of operating cash flow last quarter ⁹.

The tape has already voted

AES closed October 5 at $14.90, 0.67 percent under the $15 cash offer↗, a market pricing FERC approval as near-certain against a 52-week low of $13.21 ⁵. If docket EC26-99 kills the deal, the gap re-anchors low; if it approves, the buyers take 390 megawatts of Google load plus 650 megawatts of Meta solar contracts↗ as the growth they paid for ⁷. Watch two dated gates: the parties expect the sale to close in late 2026 or early 2027, pending FERC, which gives the 0.67 percent spread its clock ⁴⁵, and Indiana's rehearing on that $71 million increase, set for March 2027 ⁴.