Indonesia gives Freeport-McMoRan an eight-month export permit as its Q3 beat leans on price, not volume
Freeport-McMoRan topped third-quarter estimates with revenue of $7.55 billion even as Indonesian copper sales fell 23 percent, and Jakarta's new export permit keeps the world's second-largest copper mine on an eight-month leash.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Jakarta reopened the export valve, for eight months
Indonesia has granted Freeport-McMoRan's+1.52% — Freeport-McMoRan, up 1.52 percent today local unit a temporary mining license to resume concentrate exports from Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine, after a stoppage of roughly 12 weeks 1. The permit runs eight months from February, when Freeport was first offered a special mining license allowing shipments of 1.1 million metric tons of concentrate over 12 months 1. Talks on converting the contract long term, with its demands for majority local ownership, continue; Indonesia's rules require 51 percent domestic ownership by year ten, and Jakarta holds 9.36 percent today 1.
The quarter beat on price while volume stayed underground
Freeport reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.88 a share on Tuesday, beating the $0.80 analysts expected; before the print Wall Street had already lifted quarterly estimates to $0.78, a 56 percent year-over-year jump 5 3. Revenue reached $7.55 billion, ahead of the $7.36 billion consensus 5.
Copper sales of 749 million pounds fell 23 percent from 977 million a year ago as Indonesian operations ran at lower rates during the Grasberg recovery, and gold sales of 105,000 ounces missed even the reduced July plan of 160,000 after 60,000 ounces were deferred into the fourth quarter 5 6. Realized copper averaged $6.54 a pound, which covered the hole 5.
Price, not volume: revenue rose 8% in a quarter when copper sales fell 23%
- Revenue
- Net income
Data
| Revenue | Net income | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $6.79B | $0.53B |
| Q4 '24 | $5.72B | $0.27B |
| Q1 '25 | $5.73B | $0.35B |
| Q2 '25 | $7.58B | $0.77B |
| Q3 '25 | $6.97B | $0.67B |
| Q4 '25 | $5.63B | $0.41B |
| Q1 '26 | $6.23B | $0.88B |
| Q2 '26 | $7.03B | $0.98B |
| Q3 '26 | $7.55B | $1.3B |
The rally priced a squeeze, then the landlord showed up
The trade worked all year: Freeport is up 26.9 percent in 2026 and copper futures 15.2 percent, with futures at $6.60 a pound on October 26 4 2. But copper has dropped more than seven percent from its February highs as disruptions eased, and this month's license decision shows why: the rally partly priced Freeport's own export halt, which Jakarta controls 1. Even a clean quarter leaves the company reporting at the government's pleasure.
The counterpoint: the volume is coming back
The bull case delivered in Q4 guidance of 875 million pounds of copper and 300,000 ounces of gold sales, full-year unit cash costs of $1.90 a pound and roughly $8.5 billion of operating cash flow; the February memorandum extends Grasberg rights to 2041 in exchange for another 12 percent state stake 5 8. Deferral is not denial.
What settles it next
Watch how fast concentrates actually move under the eight-month permit, whether the deferred gold lands in Q4 sales, and whether Jakarta's long-term conversion talks demand more than the February terms. The rally priced copper's scarcity; the license prices Freeport's permission.
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