Kalshi traders bet $600,000 on Robinhood's earnings call tonight as the stock slides 17% this month
Roughly $600,000 is bet on Kalshi over what Vlad Tenev will say tonight, hours after the stock's 17% October slide. Beneath the price, prediction markets have taken over from crypto as Robinhood's faster engine.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
Robinhood+3.54% — Robinhood, up 3.54 percent today reports third-quarter earnings after the close tonight, October 27, into a stock down 17% this month, and for the first time the earnings call itself is a traded event: about $600,000 has changed hands on Kalshi contracts over which words CEO Vlad Tenev will use 1. Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction-market platforms, exchanges where people bet on real-world outcomes, and traders there give Robinhood roughly a two-thirds chance of beating the $0.56 earnings-per-share consensus 1.
Our reporting in early October covered the shift underneath the price: event contracts out-earned crypto in Q2. What is new tonight is the print itself, and whether it settles the argument about what the company is now worth.
The substitution is real, and Bernstein thinks it runs for years
Crypto trading revenue fell 38% year over year in Q2, while prediction markets, the sports-and-elections style event contracts, brought in $156 million that quarter, overtaking crypto's $100 million 1. The broader pivot is working too: 13 business lines now each generate at least $100 million in annualized revenue, and the Gold Card has passed a million holders 1.
Bernstein, the research house, expects prediction markets to reach $1.7 billion of revenue by 2028, above its projected $1.6 billion from crypto that year, from about $650 million this year 3. That is a forecast, not a report, but it shows how far the new engine is expected to run.
Bernstein sees prediction markets topping crypto by 2028
- Bernstein forecast
- Estimate
Data
| Bernstein forecast | |
|---|---|
| Prediction markets 2026 (estimate) | $650M |
| Prediction markets 2028 (estimate) | $1,700M |
| Crypto 2028 (projected) (estimate) | $1,600M |
Wall Street is split on the price of the story, not the story
Wolfe Research downgraded the stock and Wells Fargo+0.06% — Wells Fargo, up 0.06 percent today cut its target to $120, on the view that the good news was already reflected in the valuation; the consensus target sits near $134, and Bernstein holds at $160 2 3.
The shares closed Monday at $92.84, down 17% in October 1, after a five-session slide through October 19 that was more than three times the Nasdaq 100's decline 2. At 33 times forward earnings, down from a peak above 75 times, a return to the roughly 28 times multiple the stock traded at in March would put the shares near $83 2. That repricing is the risk bulls have to argue against tonight.
Forward P/E has compressed from 75x to 33x, with room toward 28x
Data
| Forward P/E | |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 peak | 75.5x |
| End 2025 | 43x |
| Mid-Oct 2026 | 33.4x |
| March-like level | 28x |
Tonight settles the valuation question, not the strategy one. Watch two things in the release: whether prediction-market revenue accelerated again in Q3, and whether Tenev addresses the Michigan and Ohio restrictions on sports contracts. If both hold, October's selloff looks like hype being repriced rather than an engine breaking; if either fails, the bears' multiple argument gains force.
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