Mizuho cuts its Circle target to $43 on AI agent risk while Bernstein and Ark pushed back
Mizuho became the first bank to price what AI agents do to a stablecoin issuer, cutting Circle to $43 while Bernstein raised its estimates and Ark bought $5.2 million more the same day. Circle's 7-cents-per-dollar margin is the prize.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Mizuho put the first bank price tag on what AI shopping agents do to a stablecoin issuer. In a Monday research note, the brokerage cut Circle Internet Group+0.40% — Circle Internet Group, up 0.40 percent today (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, to $43 from $45 with an Underperform rating 1. Circle's shares closed down 7% at $79.84 on Monday, leaving Mizuho's target implying 46% more downside. 1
Where a balance sits decides who collects
The mechanism is the float. Circle earns reserve interest on USDC in circulation, and where a balance sits decides who collects. As of the second quarter, only 17% of USDC sat on Circle's own platform earning no yield, 30% sat on Coinbase+0.17% — Coinbase, up 0.17 percent today, and 53% sat on other platforms, per Mizuho's report. 1 When an agent chooses where balances rest, it chooses Circle's revenue.
Only 17% of USDC sits on Circle's platform, and it earns no yield
- Other platforms5353%
- Coinbase3030%
- Circle's platform1717%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Other platforms | 53 | 53% |
| Coinbase | 30 | 30% |
| Circle's platform | 17 | 17% |
Agents steer holders out of USDC
The analysts said AI personal assistant engines, including Meta's−0.96% — Meta, down 0.96 percent today Muse, pose a "marked risk" to medium-term revenue. In their simulation, agents steer holders toward higher-yielding FDIC-insured alternatives such as SoFi+14.49% — SoFi, up 14.49 percent today savings accounts, and even when users insist on staying in crypto, the agents "seem to prefer other platforms." 1
Mizuho sizes a $4 billion to $9 billion hit to USDC's market cap, a 10-20% medium-term cut to reserve revenue, and cuts 2027 forecasts to $101 billion of USDC in circulation, $4.1 billion of reserve revenue and $603 million of adjusted EBITDA. 1 The stakes are real: Circle kept roughly 7 cents of net profit per revenue dollar on $1.4 billion of first-half revenue, with $36 trillion settled on USDC. 1
The other camp bought the same stock
Bernstein raised its Circle earnings estimates on USDC supply growth while keeping Outperform. 2 Ark Invest bought 65,615 Circle shares for about $5.2 million, adding to a top ARKK holding. 3
Circle reports Q3 on November 4. The reserve-revenue line is where the agent argument gets its first receipt.
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