Riot Platforms' $9.1 billion AI lease rests on a bridge loan expiring December 31
Riot Platforms signed the largest deal in its history in August, a 20-year AI lease worth about $9.1 billion at its Rockdale, Texas campus, but the build runs on a $573 million bridge loan that matures December 31, before a megawatt earns rent. The November 4 earnings call has to show the takeout financing, or explain who fills the gap.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
Riot Platforms−3.53% — Riot Platforms, down 3.53 percent today (NASDAQ: RIOT) has proved it can win an AI tenant; paying for the building is the unfinished step. In August the bitcoin miner signed the largest contract in its history, a 20-year lease worth about $9.1 billion 1.
The tenant, a frontier AI lab that Bloomberg reported to be Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B, took 191 megawatts at its Rockdale, Texas campus 1. Rent on the first block is targeted to begin in December 2027, and until then the conversion runs on a $573 million bridge loan from Morgan Stanley−2.32% — Morgan Stanley, down 2.32 percent today that matures on December 31 2.
The market has stopped pricing the contract and started pricing that calendar. Piper Sandler cut its Riot target to $19 on October 20 3. Its case is that credit markets have begun repricing the debt behind data-center build-outs, with CoreWeave's bonds now yielding above 15 percent 3. The scarce asset in AI infrastructure has moved from powered land to long-term capital, and Riot is standing on that seam.
Every target sits above the shares; the banks range from $19 to $35.50
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | $19 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $24 |
| Morgan Stanley | $35.5 |
Powered land won the lease; capital has to finish it
A bitcoin miner could win a frontier lab because it already owned what AI builders cannot get quickly: energized land. Management says its Texas sites sit outside the ERCOT queue for new data-center connections because their power is already under contract 2. In about six months Riot signed $9.8 billion of contracted data-center revenue with AMD+1.59% — AMD, up 1.59 percent today and the AI lab 1. That hop, from mine to lease, is done.
The money is temporary, and the backstop is unnamed
The financing hop is not. The Morgan Stanley facility is non-recourse to the parent and covers only long-lead equipment 5. Chief financial officer Jason Chung has said Riot will "execute the takeout financing of this interim facility in the coming months as the investment-grade backstop is completed"; the backstop's parties and terms are not public 2.
A loan against the AMD lease, expected to close by the end of September, had produced no closing announcement as of October 8 2. Next year's capital spending is expected near $2.4 billion; if the takeout slips, the fallbacks are an extension, bitcoin sales, or new shares 52.
Until the takeout lands, shareholders carry the gap
The gap is carried by shareholders. Riot lost $1.32 billion over the past twelve months 6. Only $4.9 million of its second-quarter data-center revenue was recurring rent 6. Short sellers hold 12.85 percent of the shares 6.
The three deepest quarterly losses of the past two years are the three just ended
Data
| Net income | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | -$154M |
| Q4 '24 | $136M |
| Q1 '25 | -$296M |
| Q2 '25 | $219M |
| Q3 '25 | $105M |
| Q4 '25 | -$691M |
| Q1 '26 | -$500M |
| Q2 '26 | -$237M |
The banks cut their targets this month and still disagree about what Riot is worth; that spread is the financing question showing up as valuation 3.
Two dates will settle it
Riot reports third-quarter results on the morning of November 4 8. Two documents would settle the argument: a closed AMD loan, and a takeout of the bridge signed before December 31 2. Without them, the lease stays a promise funded by a loss-making miner's equity. Turning mines into AI campuses is real work, and its value accrues to whoever finances and finishes the buildings. Riot signed faster than almost anyone; the unfinished link is capital, and it faces its first public test on November 4 2.
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