Lam Research said parts capped its guidance; Ichor's November 2 report tests the squeeze
Lam Research just posted a record quarter and still warned that parts shortages capped its December guidance. On November 2 Ichor reports, and its valves and cables are the narrowest point of that same squeeze.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The valves and cables are the bottleneck. On October 21 Lam Research−0.28% — Lam Research, down 0.28 percent today, the largest maker of etch and deposition tools, posted record September-quarter revenue of $8.22 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $2.20 a share, and the stock still fell 9% to $236.83 3. The reason sat in one sentence from CFO Doug Bettinger: the December-quarter guide of $8.6 billion, plus or minus $400 million, would have been a bit higher if not for some near-term supply chain constraints 3. Demand is not the problem. Parts are.
The small company holding the same bag
Two days later the market gets the small-company version of that sentence. Ichor Holdings+0.21% — Ichor Holdings, up 0.21 percent today, the Fremont, California maker of gas and chemical delivery subsystems welded into the wafer-fab tools of customers like Lam, reports its September quarter on November 2, 2026 12. It guided revenue of $315 million to $345 million and non-GAAP earnings of $0.40 to $0.50 a share, against a consensus near $0.45 12.
Revenue climbs every quarter, yet June still missed on part shortages
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $223.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $256.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $294.8M |
| Q3 2026 guide (midpoint) (estimate) | $330M |
The June quarter showed what a parts wall does. Ichor grew revenue 24% year over year to $294.8 million, yet still missed consensus by 1.85%, because isolated part shortages kept it from recognizing its full forecast before quarter end 2. The shipments landed days later, past $300 million for the 13 weeks ended July 3 2. On October 14 Oppenheimer warned the supply of components, from cables to valves, remains uneven and the hiccup could linger 5. B. Riley cut its target to $85 from $105 on October 19, keeping its Buy rating 6.
Underwater since August
October has compounded the squeeze. On October 13 investors took profits across the equipment group: Applied Materials+0.32% — Applied Materials, up 0.32 percent today fell 7%, Lam and KLA−1.71% — KLA, down 1.71 percent today 4%, against a 1% drop for the semiconductor ETF 4. Ichor's slide has been worse. The stock closed at $37.94, 67% below its 52-week high of $113.58 1, and every buyer of the 2.5 million shares Ichor sold at an average $80.70 in its June-quarter offering is underwater 2. Insiders sold $13.0 million and bought $0.3 million over the past year 78.
The shortage is the bull case
The counterpoint is the strongest one in the record. Lam's chief executive Tim Archer called the tightness nothing like the COVID-era shortage and said the company will be caught up shortly, while the industry floats more than $200 billion of 2027 equipment spending 3. A shortage inside a demand boom caps shipments today and hands pricing power to whoever can ship tomorrow. The November 2 report tells which side of that trade the valves and cables land on 3.
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