MediaTek needs November and December to jump 41-52% over October to cash its Q4 guide
October's flat print means November and December must average 41-52% above October to meet Q4 guidance, and the only line that size is the first data-center AI ASIC ramping now. The December 10 monthly report confirms or kills the re-rating from phone-chip vendor to hyperscaler supplier.
Vincent Jiangtwo-minute read
MediaTek's+4.18% — MediaTek, up 4.18 percent today October revenue landed at NT$55.026 billion on November 10: up 5.77% from a year earlier, down 0.67% from September, and essentially flat with the third quarter's monthly pace 1. That is a problem, because the fourth-quarter guide the company gave on October 30 calls for NT$210.1 to NT$221.8 billion, growth of 25% to 32% over Q3's NT$168.058 billion 2. October contributed NT$55.0 billion of it 2. November and December must therefore average NT$77.5 to NT$83.4 billion, roughly 41% to 52% above October 2. Two months have to produce about three-quarters of the quarter.
MediaTek needs a 41-52% step-up in monthly revenue to meet Q4 guidance
November and December must run 41-52% above October to hit the guide
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Q3 monthly avg | NT$56.02B |
| October actual | NT$55.03B |
| Nov-Dec avg, low guide (estimate) | NT$77.54B |
| Nov-Dec avg, high guide (estimate) | NT$83.39B |
The ASIC ramp is the only line big enough to close the gap
The only line in the plan that big is the first data-center AI ASIC, entering production this quarter. Management expects US$2.5 billion of Q4 revenue from data-center ASICs 1, targets roughly US$16 billion from that first accelerator in 2027 and has signed a second customer 4.
Eric Fisher, MediaTek's corporate VP of sales, told a New York audience the company won a leading U.S. hyperscaler and that "this time next year, you will all agree that MediaTek looks like a very, very different company" 3. Alphabet's+2.69% — Alphabet, up 2.69 percent today capital spending, more than doubled to US$51.4 billion last quarter 5, is the budget that pays for chips like these.
The market is repricing, but policy helped
The market has started voting. On November 9, 2454.TW rose 9.88% while Broadcom+6.48% — Broadcom, up 6.48 percent today rose 9.02% on Google's US$135 billion TPU forecast, a story that names MediaTek only in passing 5.
Caveat: the whole Taiex jumped 6.4% that day after regulators capped short sales and readied a NT$500 billion stabilization fund, so part of MediaTek's move is policy, not ASICs 6. And the label it is trying to shed still bites: mobile revenue fell 17% year over year in Q3 2. One tailwind: Commercial Times reports NVIDIA may cut TSMC orders, freeing capacity for ASIC players including MediaTek 4. NVIDIA−5.72% — NVIDIA, down 5.72 percent today and Alphabet both bought into its US$3.9 billion convertible last quarter 2, customers bankrolling their supplier.
The next print decides it
The checkpoints are dated. MediaTek's November sales print comes December 10 1, and January brings December's figure. Anything under NT$77.5 billion a month breaks the guide in installments; anything near NT$83 billion confirms the re-rating from Android chip vendor to Google's second custom-silicon supplier 1. The tape will say which, one monthly report at a time.
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