Technoprobe reports tonight: Equita sees Q4 revenue down 7% to €292 million; banks see double the price

The report lands on a rebound

Technoprobe▲+7.73% — Technoprobe, up 7.73 percent today publishes third-quarter results after Milan's close this evening, with the shares up more than 6% today as European technology stocks rallied on CoreWeave's▲+16.01% — CoreWeave, up 16.01 percent today beat and the run-up to Anthropic's listing↗ ¹. CoreWeave, the AI-cloud operator, had lost more than 40% of its value in a month before posting quarterly revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168%, and raising its full-year forecast to $13.0–13.3 billion↗ ².

The week before ran the other way. Chief technology officer Joseph Parks resigned on November 4↗ and left on the 6th, chief executive Stefano Felici holding the seat in the interim; the shares fell 7.07% to €22.62 that day ³. By November 6 they traded at €20.90: down 41% in a month, still up about 149% on the year ³⁴. The slide began in early October, days after an unnamed Wyoming fund bought 3% of the company off-market at the top of a 204% rally ³⁴.

A near-monopoly on testing AI chips

Founded by Giuseppe Crippa near Milan in 1996 and listed since 2022, Technoprobe makes probe cards, the tools that contact each chip on a wafer to confirm it works during manufacturing ³⁵. The more complex the chip, the longer the test. JP Morgan puts the company's share of vertical MEMS probe cards, the kind advanced logic chips increasingly need, near 60% of the world market; Barclays▲+0.22% — Barclays, up 0.22 percent today puts its share of the cards that test AI graphics processors close to 100% ⁴. Teradyne▲+5.95% — Teradyne, up 5.95 percent today, the US test-equipment group, has held 10% since 2023 ⁵.

Three banks price the stock at double

JP Morgan started coverage on October 6 at overweight with a €45 target↗, when the shares stood at €37.32 ⁶. Barclays is overweight at €40; Equita, the Milan broker whose estimates anchor tonight's numbers, has a buy at €44 ¹⁴. Against €20.90, those targets imply roughly a doubling ⁴⁶. Barclays sees the AI probe-card market growing from €1.7 billion this year to €7.1 billion by 2030, and JP Morgan expects 2027 earnings 22% above consensus ⁴⁶. The company has guided 2026 revenue to €1.05–1.10 billion ⁴.

The crack is the fourth quarter

Equita's own model cools first. It expects fourth-quarter revenue to fall 7% from the third, to €292 million↗, with EBITDA margin easing from 52% to about 46%, a dip the bank attributes to production timing and product mix rather than a turn in the cycle ⁴. The company is spending into the debate regardless: a capex plan raised to about €350 million through the first quarter of 2027, from €240 million, to lift capacity from €1.4 billion to €1.6 billion of annual revenue ⁴.

Three readings, then Anthropic

The argument resolves on three numbers tonight: revenue against the €314 million expected for the third quarter, EBITDA against €163.3 million at a 52% margin, and whether the €1.6 billion capacity target survives ¹⁴. A beat with the target reaffirmed hands the case to JP Morgan and Barclays; a soft fourth-quarter guide says the AI test boom peaked in September. The sector's verdict follows next week, when AnthropicPVT$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B prices 825 million shares at $70 to $78 on November 18 and starts trading on the 19th, in an offering of up to $64.35 billion ¹⁷. Technoprobe answers first.