Molina's 10-Q moves its two biggest Medicaid wins past the 2027 recovery the Street is pricing
The 10-Q moves the Georgia and Texas wins to late 2027 or 2028 while the Street raises targets on 2027 rates; the Florida children's contract is guided to a $1.50-per-share quarterly loss and about 700 autism providers say they are unpaid. The recovery-year revenue arrives after the recovery year.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
Molina−3.46% — Molina, down 3.46 percent today beat estimates this week and promised the Medicaid margin turn is coming, but its own quarterly filing moved the two biggest pieces of its 2027 growth story to 2028 1. The 10-Q filed October 22 says the Georgia and Texas Medicaid awards now start in late 2027 or 2028 because of procurement protests; the filing does not name who is protesting 1. The same week, Jefferies−1.84% — Jefferies, down 1.84 percent today raised its price target on 2027 rate data 2, yet the stock closed Friday at $209.15, down 3.5% 6.
The recovery-year revenue now arrives after the recovery year, and the one live new contract is leaking.
The filing contradicts the rally case
The Georgia award once looked near. Molina was the top scorer, the state announced its intent in December 2024, and the contract was to start July 1, 2025 1. In Texas, Molina was notified in early 2024 of the intent to award the STAR and CHIP contract, the state's Medicaid managed care for children and low-income families and its Children's Health Insurance Program 1. Both are existing Molina states, meant to add share; the prior quarter's 10-Q carried no entries on either protest 1.
That matters for the money question: management guided 2027 premium to at least $45 billion against about $42 billion this year, citing modest Medicaid growth 3. If the two pending awards stay late, the growth in that guide belongs, for another year, to whoever holds those contracts now.
Molina is shrinking Marketplace and holding Medicaid flat while it waits
- Q3 2026
- Q3 2025
Data
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Medicaid | 8,199M | 8,015M |
| Medicare | 1,616M | 1,610M |
| Marketplace | 642M | 1,197M |
The one new contract is bleeding
Florida's program for children with complex conditions did start, on October 1, and full-year guidance absorbs a $1.50-per-share loss from it in the fourth quarter 1. CBS reported that a medical attorney representing nearly 700 applied behavior analysis providers, therapists serving children with autism, says none of them have been paid since Molina took over the claims pipe, and Florida's health agency is investigating 4. This is the implementation risk that rate math never prices.
Where the judgment lands
Molina is shrinking on purpose: $1 billion of Marketplace premium cut for 2027 and the traditional Medicare book exited 1, while work requirements may remove about 260,000 Medicaid members 5. The bull case rests on 2027 rates of about 6% against 5.5% cost trend 5.
The evidence supports a split verdict: the rate-versus-trend math supports the margin turn, and the filing shows the growth lever arrives a year late. A stock at $209.15 6 is priced on a recovery whose revenue is now delayed; the question for holders is whether the target raises survive a document that moves the growth out of the recovery year.
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