Nvidia prepays for packaging capacity; SUSS MicroTec's record backlog ships only 240 million euros
Nvidia is prepaying for capacity and Besi says deliveries are slipping into 2027. SUSS MicroTec's record order book only converts to revenue if about 240 million euros ships in the second half, and the third-quarter report on November 5 decides it.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
Nvidia−3.60% — Nvidia, down 3.60 percent today said on October 21 that demand is extraordinary and capacity is the constraint, then put a 1.1 billion dollar reservation advance behind new US testing capacity at KYEC and 300 percent more advanced-packaging capacity at Amkor−8.85% — Amkor, down 8.85 percent today by end-2028 5. The customer of the entire chain is now prepaying for capacity itself.
One day later Besi+4.40% — Besi, up 4.40 percent today, the leader in the bonding tools that stack AI chips, told investors some of its deliveries are now scheduled for customers' first-half 2027 capacity expansions 6. The AI buildout has moved past a demand problem into a queue problem, and the queue is what SUSS MicroTec's share price is actually trading on.
The order book is sold out. The calendar is not.
SUSS MicroTec+2.69% — SUSS MicroTec, up 2.69 percent today, the German maker of the coaters and bonders used in advanced packaging, booked 410 million euros of orders in the first half of 2026, up 145.8 percent, while shipping only 202.8 million euros of revenue, down 23.9 percent 1. The order book hit a record 473.7 million euros in June, larger than the full-year revenue guidance of 425 to 485 million 1. On paper the company is sold out. In time, it is not.
Only about half of SUSS's record backlog is scheduled to ship in 2026
Data
| EUR m | |
|---|---|
| Order book (June 2026) | €473.7m |
| Scheduled for H2 2026 | €240m |
| Scheduled for 2027 | €220m |
Only half the backlog ships this year
Here is the part the market keeps mispricing. Management said on the August call that only about 240 million euros of that backlog is slated for delivery in the second half of 2026, with roughly 220 million already scheduled for 2027, and that the window for new orders to still ship this year is closing because production slots are full 7. Hitting guidance needs roughly 222 to 282 million euros of second-half revenue 7. The queue holds that whole outcome.
The market is pricing a demand problem
The price has noticed. The stock sits more than 50 percent below its 52-week high of 118.40 euros after a sector-wide selloff driven by doubts about AI-investment returns, not by anything SUSS reported 2. It slipped another 3.28 percent pre-market today to 53.63 euros ahead of the open 4. Meanwhile Deutsche Bank raised its target to 100 euros and Berenberg holds Buy at 125, expecting exactly what the record shows: higher orders, stagnant deliveries 2, 3.
Nvidia's check changes who carries the queue
SUSS is not among the six partners Nvidia named. That is not necessarily bad news: a backlog worth near half the market cap, with 240 million euros of it scheduled to land inside the year, is a book you are paid to wait for. And the inference the chain supports is that prepayments travel: Nvidia's own checks for testing and packaging capacity show that customers up and down this buildout have begun paying for queue positions, and the natural next hop is the toolmakers.
The test is November 5, when SUSS reports the third quarter 1, 3. If the 240 million starts converting and the 8 to 10 percent EBIT margin guidance holds 1, the shares are cheap against both targets.
If it does not, the price says so plainly. A second flat-delivery quarter would turn the record backlog into a timing risk, because a queue that slips quietly into 2027 moves revenue, and eventually sentiment, with it. Either way, this is the clearest public read yet on where the AI packaging queue really stands.
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More about NVIDIA
NVDA · Fiscal Q2 2027Revenue rose 106% to $96.2B, 92.5% of it from Data Center, “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure”. Gains on equity stakes of $7.8B lifted net income to $59.7B.
Show as a table
| Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $96.2B |
| Gross margin | 75.0% |
| Operating margin | 66.2% |
| Net income | $59.7B |
| Hyperscale | $48.7B |
| AI clouds & enterprise | $40.3B |
| Data Center | $89.0B |
| Edge Computing | $7.2B |
| Gross profit | $72.1B |
| Cost of revenue | $24.1B |
| Other income | $7.8B |
| Operating income | $63.7B |
| Operating expenses | $8.4B |
| Tax | $11.8B |
| R&D | $7.1B |
| SG&A | $1.4B |
