One day settles the AI-optics fight: Lumentum's sold-out lasers meet MACOM's sinking tape
Lumentum says its AI lasers are sold out through early 2029 and revenue has doubled; MACOM just fell 9.91 percent as Meta's negative free cash flow and CoreWeave's debt bill raise the question of who pays for the buildout. Both report on November 5.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Lumentum's+8.64% — Lumentum, up 8.64 percent today lasers are gone. CEO Michael Hurlston told Bloomberg Television the company's AI optical components are completely sold out through early 2029, and that it cannot meet roughly 70 percent of demand for some products through 2027 1. The market believed him enough to bid the stock up 2.85 percent on October 23, within a 52-week range of $157.40 to $1,143.00 and a $68.2 billion market cap 1. MACOM, down the same trade, is not so lucky this month: it fell 9.91 percent last week to $236.24 2.
Two camps, one morning
On November 5 both names report: Lumentum after the market likely tests its guidance, MACOM+3.20% — MACOM, up 3.20 percent today fiscal Q4 before the open with consensus at $1.5828 EPS on $420 million of revenue 12. Lumentum's fiscal Q4 revenue hit $1.01 billion, up 109.3 percent, and it guided fiscal Q1 to $1.225–1.275 billion at 39.5–40.5 percent non-GAAP operating margin 1. Bernstein previewed Coherent+5.66% — Coherent, up 5.66 percent today and Lumentum earnings landing this same earnings window, its note dated October 20 4.
Lumentum's revenue has tripled in two years, and its guide points higher still
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $0.32B |
| Q4 '23 | $0.37B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.37B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.31B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.34B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.4B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.43B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.48B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.53B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.67B |
| Q1 '26 | $0.81B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.01B |
| Q3 '26 guide (estimate) | $1.25B ($1.225–1.275B) |
What the bears are pricing
The drop came without company-specific news at MACOM: chip stocks logged their longest losing streak since 2006 3. Meta+0.08% — Meta, up 0.08 percent today narrowed 2026 capex to $135–145 billion and reported negative free cash flow, its first cash outflow in more than a decade 3. Lam Research+3.62% — Lam Research, up 3.62 percent today guided $8.6 billion plus or minus $400 million and warned parts shortages will curb output into 2027 3.
CoreWeave+4.82% — CoreWeave, up 4.82 percent today, a neocloud dependent on financed demand, carries $35.6 billion of debt with its 2031 bond implying a low-teens yield and net leverage near 6.8x 5. Musk, after SpaceX+0.92% — SpaceX, up 0.92 percent today closed $40 billion in GPU financing, warned of neocloud collapse 5.
Analysts see 65 percent upside; the tape disagrees
Analysts still rate MACOM a buy, 10 of 16, with a $390.33 consensus target about 65 percent above spot 2. If clouds financing the optics buildout stumble, sold-out books can turn into excess supply. November 5 tells which camp owns the tape 12.
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