Oracle's $165 billion New Mexico campus permit slipped past December 7 as lenders sell the debt
Oracle's $664 billion backlog assumes its biggest Stargate campus switches on. The New Mexico air-permit decision just slipped past December 7, the project's lenders are heading for the exits, and the stock's 8% drop was blamed on politics instead.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
The calendar on Oracle's+1.31% — Oracle, up 1.31 percent today largest data center just moved, and the market has not priced it. Bloomberg reported on November 5 that Yucca Growth Infrastructure LLC, the power developer behind Oracle's planned $165 billion New Mexico complex, waived its right to a November 23 decision deadline on the state air permit its gas-fired plant needs 1. The decision now follows a public hearing on December 7 1.
Oracle's stock fell about 8% the same day, but the wire blamed the Democratic sweep and Oracle's capital intensity, not the schedule 34. That split is the trade.
Three parties now hold the switch-on date
The permit is not a local detail. Oracle is the main tenant at Project Jupiter, the New Mexico campus in the OpenAI$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T-Oracle-SoftBank Stargate venture, and its $664 billion backlog is a promise about campuses that switch on and keep switching on 2. Three parties now hold the date: the state air regulator, the lenders selling the project's debt, and Oracle itself, which in September served the developer a force majeure notice, a clause that could let it delay payments if the campus misses its 2028 start 2.
Lenders are already voting. An unnamed holder is auctioning about $500 million of data-center loans, including a $25 million slice backing Project Jupiter, with bids due November 19 2. The site's $18 billion of loans were quoted at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar in September 2.
Oracle has already paid for the build
Free cash flow ran to negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026, total debt with leases stood at $169.1 billion on August 31, and this week's $20 billion raise exhausted its cap through fiscal 2030 3. Any delay means collecting later on money already spent 3.
Oracle's capex has climbed tenfold in two years as its debt pile followed
- Capex
- Total debt
Data
| Capex | Total debt | |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | 2.8B | 93.12B |
| Q3 '24 | 2.3B | 84.52B |
| Q4 '24 | 3.97B | 88.62B |
| Q1 '25 | 5.86B | 96.28B |
| Q2 '25 | 9.08B | 104.1B |
| Q3 '25 | 8.5B | 105.41B |
| Q4 '25 | 12.03B | 124.39B |
| Q1 '26 | 18.64B | 153.12B |
| Q2 '26 | 16.49B | 156.19B |
| Q3 '26 | 28.5B | 155.93B |
The stock trades at 14 times forward earnings against a five-year average of 21x 3. Wait for December 7 3. If the permit clears, the cheap multiple is the story. If it slips again, the force majeure clause goes live and the project's loans reprice before Oracle's mid-December results do it for you.
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