Rigetti Computing jumped 49% in five days on a $5.8 million Air Force deal and its own 99.5% fidelity claim
Rigetti Computing fell 26% in a month, then jumped 49% in five days, on a $5.8 million Air Force contract and a 99.5% fidelity claim measured in its own labs. The filings show quarterly revenue under $5.2 million.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Five trading days, roughly 49% added to Rigetti+0.13% — Rigetti, up 0.13 percent today Computing's share price, and the whole thing turns on a number measured inside Rigetti's own labs 32. The Berkeley-based quantum chipmaker fell 26% in the month through mid-October, dragged down when IonQ−0.67% — IonQ, down 0.67 percent today priced a $2 billion stock sale and investors marked every quantum name down as a cash-burning dilution machine 32.
Then the same stock rebounded 49% in the week just ended, on a $5.8 million Air Force contract and a fidelity claim nobody outside the company has audited 1. That round trip, up then down then up again on billions of market value, is the trade retail buyers just paid for.
The filings show a business far smaller than the valuation
The company's filings show the commercial reality: quarterly revenue between about $1.5 million and $5.1 million for the past two years, $5.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, against a multibillion-dollar valuation 3. The checkable government money arrives far slower than the headlines.
Rigetti's quarterly revenue has never cleared $5.2 million
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $3.05M |
| Q2 '24 | $3.09M |
| Q3 '24 | $2.38M |
| Q4 '24 | $2.27M |
| Q1 '25 | $1.47M |
| Q2 '25 | $1.8M |
| Q3 '25 | $1.95M |
| Q4 '25 | $1.87M |
| Q1 '26 | $4.4M |
| Q2 '26 | $5.14M |
The new Air Force Research Laboratory deal, disclosed October 21, pays $5.8 million over five years for quantum foundry services and cryogenic components, real work, small money 1. Rigetti also holds a CHIPS Act deal of up to $100 million on the same terms D-Wave finalized in September, and the government takes a minority equity stake in return, which means more dilution, just slower 2.
The cash cushion came from selling the rally
The cushion is real, and it exists because of the rally, not despite it. Rigetti completed a $350 million at-the-market equity raise and holds roughly $575 million in cash and investments with no debt 1. Shareholders funded that cushion by selling the stock into the enthusiasm.
The engine under the week's move was not Rigetti at all: IonQ's blowout fourth-quarter 2025 report, full-year revenue up 202% to $130 million and 2026 guidance of $280 to $290 million, lifted every quantum name in sympathy 1. Rigetti is simply the highest-beta way to trade that sector story.
The skeptics' price target sits below the tape
Analyst targets cluster in the high teens to the low $40s, against an October peak above $56 1. The fidelity claim could hold up under independent replication; until someone outside Rigetti runs the benchmarking, buyers are trusting the company's own number 1.
The falsifiers are plain: an outsider reproducing the 99.5% figure, or commercial revenue beyond Novera systems and government contracts. Neither has arrived. The gap between what the market cap implies and what has been proven did not close this week. It widened.
Deep dive in below to learn more. Watch the third-quarter report, due in early November, and any independent test of the chip.
Get Chips by email, free
How AI demand is reshaping chipmakers, memory and the fabs behind them. In our daily email, every weekday.
