Robinhood's CFO calls the fight for Anthropic IPO retail orders a 'food fight' ahead of November 26 pricing
CFO Shiv Verma says an amended IPO registration filing puts Robinhood on Anthropic's deal, and calls the broker contest for retail orders a "food fight." The number that settles it, retail's percentage of the float, is still unwritten.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A food fight with a three-week clock
Robinhood's−0.76% — Robinhood, down 0.76 percent today finance chief Shiv Verma took the broker's fight for Anthropic's$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B initial public offering public on Monday. The amended S-1, the IPO registration filing held with the Securities and Exchange Commission, shows Robinhood is on the deal, he told Bloomberg Television, and the scramble for retail orders is "a food fight out there" 1, a rematch with the brokers it fought when SpaceX+1.95% — SpaceX, up 1.95 percent today listed in June: Charles Schwab, Fidelity, SoFi−0.54% — SoFi, down 0.54 percent today and Morgan Stanley's+0.58% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.58 percent today E*Trade 89.
Anthropic, the company behind the Claude chatbot, prices before Thanksgiving on November 26, seeking to meet or beat SpaceX's $86.2 billion debut 2 on banker targets of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion 3. The Inference had the timing on October 29; new since are the amendment naming Robinhood, Anthropic's third-quarter accounts 4 and Monday's Australian retail syndicate 2.
The prize is a percentage of the float. Five years ago retail received 1 to 2 percent of a typical IPO; SpaceX gave retail 15 to 20 percent in June; Robinhood's own 2021 listing set a then-record 20 percent 1.
Retail's slice of an IPO has gone from a rounding error to a fifth of the deal
Data
| Retail share of offering | |
|---|---|
| Typical IPO, five years ago (1–2%) | 2% (1–2%) |
| SpaceX, June 2026 (15–20%) | 20% (15–20%) |
| Robinhood IPO, 2021 | 20% |
The demand data Robinhood is bidding with
Verma's pitch to issuers is arithmetic: retail carries 20 to 25 percent of daily US equity volume and should be treated as "a first-class citizen" 1. Chief executive Vlad Tenev says founders now approach Robinhood directly, with retail allocations on recent deals running toward 20 or 30 percent of an offering 5.
The bid is Robinhood's own quarter: record revenue of $1.42 billion in the three months to September 30, up 12 percent, the slowest growth in ten quarters, with diluted earnings down 16 percent at $0.51 67. Engagement ran louder: equity volumes up 53 percent, event-contract revenue up more than sixfold at $173 million 6. Verma puts prediction markets at a touch over $500 million a year in revenue, with non-sports contracts now 30 percent of volume 1.
Record revenue, slowest growth in ten quarters for Robinhood
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | $0.68B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.64B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.01B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.93B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.99B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.27B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.28B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.07B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.31B |
| Q3 '26 | $1.42B |
Anthropic holds the pen
Pressed for Anthropic's number, Verma cited the quiet period, the SEC rule that limits what deal participants can say while an offering is live; the issuer and its banks set the split 1. Anthropic is drawing its own map regardless. On Monday it named eight Australian firms, including Macquarie and Commonwealth Bank's CommSec, to run a retail offer 2. Australia is one of the few countries, with Japan, Canada and parts of Europe, where the shares will be sold directly to retail investors 2.
The amended filing shows $17 billion of third-quarter revenue against a $23.3 billion net loss, mostly non-cash charges on convertible notes and on SAFEs, the simple agreements for future equity that startups issue instead of priced shares, plus $895.4 billion of compute commitments running toward 2045 4. Buyers in the offering take on those losses while the cofounders' single special share keeps 50.1 percent of the vote 8.
What to watch next
SpaceX priced June's deal at $135 and opened at $150 on roughly $250 billion of demand, nearly four times the offering 9; investors allocated at $135 captured about $15 a share at the first trade. If Anthropic's slice stays near 1 to 2 percent, retail investors sit queued behind institutions while the winning brokers convert scarcity into funded accounts at close to zero acquisition cost 9. A SpaceX-size slice hands the issuer's noisiest holders 15 to 20 percent of the float at the IPO price 9.
Robinhood, down 1.4 percent on Monday and about 24 percent this year 18, has the most to gain from that funnel. The tell is one line in Anthropic's final prospectus, the percentage reserved for retail, plus its Australian filing with the securities regulator ASIC 2.
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