Vistra sold 20 years of Texas power to a campus with no tenant to pay its $110 million first-year bill

Vistra▼−2.61% — Vistra, down 2.61 percent today sold 20 years of firm Texas power in September, and this month the buyer's own filing shows what that revenue stands on ¹. New Era Energy & Digital (Nasdaq: NUAI), a small developer building a data center campus in Odessa, disclosed the price in a 10-Q filed November 12↗: the fixed part of its power bill alone runs about $110 million in the first contract year, take-or-pay ¹. The tenant whose rent would cover that bill has not signed; New Era is negotiating under a non-binding letter of intent ².

The power is contracted. The revenue that pays for it is a letter of intent.

The contract is take-or-pay, and the credit is cash

The deal, signed September 18↗ between New Era's subsidiary TCDC PowerCo and Luminant ET Services, a Vistra affiliate, requires payment for the full contracted quantity whether or not the campus consumes it ¹. That is 200 to 207 megawatts every hour, with power due from the third quarter of 2027 ¹. The source is Vistra's 1,180 MW gas plant across the fence from the site ³.

The security is cash, posted before any tenant

Vistra asked for real credit support. The contract requires a $116 million standby letter of credit for its full term, plus uncapped additional security from the day power flows, sized to the seller's mark-to-market and rising if ERCOT (Texas's main grid) forward prices fall ¹. Macquarie, the project lender, issued that letter of credit in October against about $118 million of restricted cash ¹.

New Era funded part of the collateral with $60 million of Macquarie borrowings ¹. It repaid the lender with a $64 million share sale priced at $2.75, after Macquarie waived its own condition that a data center lease be signed before it lent ¹.

The scale gap is stark: New Era's revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was under $1 million, from the legacy Permian gas wells of a company that pivoted to data centers last year ¹.

Vistra's 2028 book is the exposed end

Vistra's November 6 call, which we covered, set the backdrop: about 98% of expected 2027 generation is hedged ⁴⁵. For 2028 the cover drops to 78%, and lower still in ERCOT ⁴. Texas supplies just under 40% of Vistra's generation earnings ⁴.

The Odessa sale is firm revenue beginning exactly where that cover thins. Its protection even moves with Vistra's own warning: management said ERCOT forwards have softened, and softer forwards automatically raise New Era's collateral requirement ¹⁴.

Nor is the sale fully closed on Vistra's side. Luminant's delivery obligation still depends on executing a related infrastructure agreement, and New Era can walk away without liability if no power has flowed by the end of 2027 ¹. The campus also connects behind the meter, on a private network outside ERCOT's interconnection process, so this demand strengthens a Vistra plant while staying invisible to the load forecasts Vistra trimmed this quarter ²⁵.

The lease signature decides both stories

New Era has done the middle work between a power capability and a paying customer: 493 acres owned, site preparation underway, an air permit filed for Phase 2 generation, collateral posted ². Vistra aligned itself with the outcome, taking 5% of the powered portion of the project once delivery begins, plus first rights on future development there ¹³.

Only the paying link is missing. Management told the November 12 call↗ it is negotiating definitive lease documents with a major technology firm, under the letter of intent covering Phases 1 and 2 ⁶. New Era expects Phase 1 to need $150 million to $400 million of spending in the first year after a tenant signs ¹.

That signature is what turns Odessa into earnings for either company. It funds the $110 million annual bill on one side, and converts Vistra's secured megawatts into two decades of firm demand on the other. Until it lands, the newest number in Vistra's Texas story is someone else's escrow.